“It is totally absurd to take such risks when you have safe and effective vaccines”, deplores the epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur and member of the Scientific Council Arnaud Fontanet Monday, November 22 on franceinfo, while 13% of people over the age of 80 are still not at all vaccinated against Covid-19 and that the fifth wave is “dazzling”, in the words of the government spokesperson.
franceinfo: Why are the figures for the epidemic rising so quickly?
Arnaud Fontanet: There are two reasons for this recovery. The first is what is called the climate effect. It’s been colder recently, people hang out more indoors. If they don’t ventilate, if they don’t wear a mask, they expose themselves. The Delta variant is more transmissible than the previous ones and we realize that in an indoor environment, it is transmitted quickly. This recovery was faster than expected. It can be seen all over Europe. It starts with Eastern Europe and then now our neighbors and in France. The second reason for this resumption is a decrease in the effectiveness of the vaccine, again in the context of a Delta variant which has a higher viral load than its predecessors and this decrease in the effectiveness of the vaccine is manifested. Six months after the second dose, you have protection which is around 50% whereas it was 90% immediately after the injection. On the other hand – and this is the good news – the risk against severe forms remains very reduced. You reduce your risk of being hospitalized by 90% if you are vaccinated, which is why it is essential to be vaccinated. But that does not completely protect against the disease and you will all see people around you who are vaccinated and become infected, which contributes to the transmission and circulation of the virus.
How then to prevent the outbreak of the epidemic?
What is very important is that the two reasons for this crisis also give a little the keys. You have to wear masks, you have to open the windows and you have to limit the times when you find yourself in a risky situation – without a mask in an enclosed environment with the windows closed. And then, with regard to the drop in vaccine efficacy, there is a booster which is very effective since we know that one month after receiving your booster dose, the concentration of neutralizing antibodies is five to ten. times more than one month after the second dose. It really is a quantitative leap. The booster really boosts your immunity. That divides your risk of infection by 10, by 20 your risk of hospitalization compared to people who have had a second dose but not a booster. So this reminder is very important especially for people who are at risk of serious forms. We still have 10% of people who have not received an injection, who are not vaccinated at all. These people are at high risk of becoming infected and developing serious forms. I am thinking especially of the over 80s, 13% of whom are not vaccinated. Their risk of dying is greater than 10% if they are infected. We have an extremely transmissible virus so it is totally absurd to take such risks when we have safe and effective vaccines.
Does the Scientific Council plan to reconfine as in Austria?
We have a lot of uncertainties about the future because these reruns were very brutal, which means that the climatic effect and the transmission in a closed environment are stronger than what we thought they would be.
“The course of this epidemic is very volatile and it is too early to be able to say how far measures will have to go to stop this wave.”
Arnaud Fontanet, epidemiologistto franceinfo
What is certain is that we must act early. The sooner you take action, the shorter the measurements and the harder they will be. If the evolution was happening without being able to be controlled, if we saw the figures absolutely fly away, including the hospitalization figures, there is a moment or another when you say to yourself that it is necessary to reconfine. But for now, France is in a better situation today because when this new wave started, on the one hand the start was slower, the month of October was more lenient compared to Northern European countries, on the other hand, our overall immunization situation is quite good. We have high vaccination coverage. And then we already have measures in place that we kept, which meant that this restart was later and slower. It is very difficult today to tell you what the kinetics of this epidemic will be. Nothing can be ruled out, but for the moment there are tools to get started quickly. And then there are also individual behaviors to take. We always talk about what the government could do, but we individually can choose to be less exposed. This is not the time to gather families, to put ourselves in these situations where we are at risk. We no longer wear the mask, we ventilate, there are a lot of things we can do.