Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian told AFP on Friday that his country’s new war with Azerbaijan is “very likely”, accusing Baku of carrying out a “genocide” of Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought two wars for control of this mountainous territory and attempts to normalize relations, mediated by the European Union, the United States and Russia, have made little progress.
Tensions escalated in early July when Azerbaijan on various pretexts closed traffic on the Lachin Corridor, the only road linking Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia.
This Azerbaijani blockade has created a serious humanitarian crisis within the enclave, mainly populated by Armenians, with shortages of food and medicine and frequent power cuts.
“This is not a genocide in preparation, but a genocide that is in progress,” said Mr Pashinian, accusing the Azerbaijani army of having created a “ghetto” in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Residents of this territory interviewed by AFP last week described empty stalls in stores and a dangerous lack of access to healthcare.
The last war between the two countries, in 2020, ended in the defeat of Armenia, which had to cede territories to Azerbaijan in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. The peace process has since stalled.
“Until a peace treaty has been signed and such a treaty has been ratified by the parliaments of both countries, of course, a [nouvelle] war [avec l’Azerbaïdjan] is very likely,” Mr. Pashinian warned.
Russia, which has a contingent of peacekeepers on the spot, is struggling to contain the crisis. Moscow has been accused of inaction by Armenia and of defaulting on its obligations by Azerbaijan.
“Policy of ethnic cleansing”
The last round of peace negotiations, held on July 15 in Brussels, having failed to achieve a breakthrough, Nikol Pashinian said on Friday that the West and Russia should exert increased pressure on Baku in order to lift the blockade.
“According to the logic of some Western circles, Russia does not meet all our expectations because it does not fulfill its obligations, but Russia tells us the same thing about the West,” he explained.
According to Mr. Pashinian, the negotiations between the two rivals are hampered by “Azerbaijan’s aggressive rhetoric and hate speech against Armenians”. He accused Baku of carrying out a “policy of ethnic cleansing”.
On the ground, despite the establishment of a ceasefire in 2020, deadly armed clashes remain regular both in Nagorno-Karabakh and on the border between the two countries.
Yerevan even accuses Baku of gradually eating away at Armenian territory.
Acknowledgment and Warranties
Prime Minister Pashinian thus indicated that his country’s “red lines” for talks with Azerbaijan are “the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Armenia, as well as the rights and security of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh”.
This enclave had already been the subject of a war at the fall of the USSR in the 1990s, which claimed the lives of 30,000 people. The more recent conflict, in 2020, left 6,500 dead on both sides.
Mainly populated by Armenians and supported by Yerevan, Nagorno-Karabakh is considered by the international community to be part of the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan.
“The case of Armenia is difficult, because Armenia’s interest in this process [de défense des habitants du Karabakh] is perceived and interpreted by Azerbaijan as a so-called encroachment on its territorial integrity,” Pashinian said.
In previous rounds of Western-mediated negotiations, Yerevan agreed to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, but demanded international mechanisms to protect the rights and safety of the region’s ethnic Armenian population.
Baku insists that these guarantees must be provided at the national level and rejects any international format.
Nikol Pashinian insisted on Friday on the need for a dialogue between Azerbaijan and the Karabakh authorities, “in the context of international mechanisms where we have a witness”. “The witness present will be the international community,” he said.