(Buenos Aires) Exhausted by over-indebtedness and inflation, Argentines vote on Sunday in an undecided first round of the presidential election, tossed between the temptation of an “anti-system” candidate and the certainty of a difficult tomorrow.
Rarely since the return of democracy 40 years ago has an election been so uncertain and stressful for Argentina, where inflation is reaching levels among the highest in the world (138%).
Javier Milei, a 53-year-old ultraliberal economist who is “anarcho-capitalist” in his own words, who promises to “cut apart” the State, admires Donald Trump and denies man’s responsibility for climate change, has overturned the table in two barely years in politics, to the point of finding himself at the top of voting intentions in the first round.
“Let them all go away, let there not be one left!” », shouted this week at the closing meeting Mr. Milei, a polemicist who emerged from TV sets into politics two years ago. And who unfurled a “clear” red thread, against the “parasitic political caste”, according to him, the Peronists (center left) and liberals who have alternated in power for twenty years.
PHOTO MATIAS BAGLIETTO, REUTERS
Javier Milei, at the top of the voting intentions
In this “three-way scenario”, as pollsters have called it, Mr. Milei collects around 35% of voting intentions, ahead of Sergio Massa (around 30%), current Minister of the Economy and candidate of the government bloc of center left, and Patricia Bullrich (26%) of the opposition alliance (center right), a former Minister of Security under liberal President Maurico Macri (2015-2019).
Behind them, two minor candidates, Myriam Bregman (radical left) and Juan Schiaretti (centrist coalition), do not exceed 4%.
“A leap into the void”
Argentines have learned to live with the uncertainty of the next day: 12.4% inflation in August, 12.7% in September – the highest monthly index in 32 years – and labels that change from one week to the next. other. And a daily guerrilla war to thwart prices: purchases at the start of the month, juggling between various credits…
“We need a change. This country is a disaster, really, between poverty, inflation, people are not doing well,” lamented Gabriela Paperini, 57, on Sunday at the opening of a polling station in the Palermo district. She was preparing to vote in favor of Bullrich – but her daughter chose Milei – and said she felt “so much” uncertainty about the outcome of the vote.
“We are used, as a society, to voting for people who then disappoint us, do the opposite of what they said, or do their business,” grimaced Boris Moran, a 34-year-old lawyer, also attracted by “the different option” Milei, even if some see him as “a leap into the void”.
“Fed up”, “anxiety”, “no magic change”, came up regularly on Sunday in the words of voters interviewed by AFP, suggesting that the vote is being played out somewhere, between anger, worry and skepticism.
Reverse Mme Bullrich, who promises “the most austere government in the history of Argentina”, and a severe cleansing of the social millefeuille, in a country with 40% poor, 10% more than eight years ago.
PHOTO NATACHA PISARENKO, ASSOCIATED PRESS
People are waiting to vote.
Towards Mr. Massa, who assures that “the worst of the crisis” is over thanks to an upcoming export boom. But it will not be possible to avoid a turn of the screw on a pathologically oversubsidized economy, under the eye of the IMF to which Argentina is struggling to repay a colossal loan of 44 billion dollars.
Or towards Mr. Milei, to the plan to “dollarize” the economy to see the greenback replace the peso. Project decried in a manifesto by 170 economists from various sides as a “mirage” with perilous social and inflationary costs.
“Barometer of anxiety”
“Milei’s arrival brought a terrible sense of the unknown […]. There is a desire for change, but even if it is popular, the prospect of a drastic shift puts people on edge,” analyzes Benjamin Gedan, economist specializing in Argentina at the Wilson Center think tank.
The national currency, the peso, has plummeted in two years from 99 to 365 pesos per dollar at the official rate – and nearly 1,000 pesos at the parallel street rate, a true “barometer of anxiety” for Argentines, according to Mr. Gedan.
They do not forget that the day after the August primary, a “rehearsal” for the presidential election which saw Mr. Milei’s breakthrough (30%), the peso, under pressure, was devalued by 20%.
To be elected in the first round, a candidate must obtain at least 45% of the votes, or 40% but 10% ahead of the runner-up.
Some 35.8 million voters also renewed half of the deputies and a third of the Senate on Sunday.
The first results are expected around 10 p.m. local time (9 p.m. Eastern Time).