The center-left coalition of Argentine President Alberto Fernandez lost control of both chambers of Parliament on Sunday during partial legislative elections, forcing the head of state to the last two years of precarious governance, forced into dialogue and consensus with the ‘opposition.
Mr. Fernandez’s “Frente de Todos” (“Front de tous”) coalition did not already have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. In the Senate, according to projections, it would fall from 41 senators (out of a total of 72) to 35.
“If the figures are confirmed, the majority is lost in the Senate,” a government source told AFP, with 98% of the votes counted. It is the first time, since the return of democracy in 1983, that the Peronist current loses the Senate.
The head of state, elected in 2019, still has two years in office.
General interest
He announced Sunday evening, in a speech in the form of an admission of defeat, a “new stage” and called for “a fruitful relationship” of the government with the Parliament, “in the general interest of the country”.
He assured that he would approach other political forces with a view to an “agreement on a program as shared as possible” with “a responsible opposition, open to dialogue, and patriotic”.
Pending final figures, the Peronist coalition, although in the minority, should remain the leading group in both chambers. But by losing ground on the center-right coalition “Juntos por el Cambio” (Together for change) of former president (2015-2019) Mauricio Macri.
But Mr. Fernandez said on Sunday that he kept “the firmness necessary to defend the interests” of the country with a view to a “viable agreement” with the IMF, to which Argentina must repay from 2022 more than 19 billion dollars, out of the 44 of a loan granted under the Macri presidency.
“We need to dispel the uncertainties associated with unsustainable debts like this,” he said. “To negotiate is not to obey”.
Argentina is back on the path to growth in 2021 (9% expected), after three years of recession, and a heavy socio-economic impact of the Covid.
But it still faces galloping inflation (41.8% in 2021), with more than 40% of its population stricken by poverty.
Around the polling stations, purchasing power and economy were in the minds of many, whether they were “Peronists” or “Macrists”.
“I’m afraid for the economy … Whoever wins, it will take a long time for the country to recover,” Oscar Navarro, a 50-year-old pastry chef, told AFP.
The government should see its room for maneuver very reduced until the presidential election of 2023, forced to only engage in consensual policies, or even resort to decrees.
Negotiate “law by law”
The executive “will have to negotiate law by law”, analyzes the political scientist Raul Aragon, of the University of Matanza. He predicts, however, that the opposition will play the game: “It is useless not to dialogue, to appear as undemocratic” before the presidential election of 2023.
“The next two years are going to be difficult,” said Mr. Macri, assuring that his opposition coalition would behave “with great responsibility”, so that “the transition is as orderly as possible”.
However, the election result should neither panic the markets nor see the peso decline a little more (105 per dollar at the official rate, 200 on the black market), believes Raul Aragon. “For the markets, the situation is the same as yesterday. If the ruling party had won by 10 points, perhaps they would say to themselves “Venezuela is coming”, or if the opposition had won by 10 points, that it is ungovernable. But this scenario changes almost nothing ”.
However, he confirmed the emergence on the Argentine political scene of new profiles, such as the 51-year-old liberal-libertarian economist Javier Milei (with an assumed affinity with former US President Donald Trump or Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro) , who entered Parliament as a Member of Parliament.