The stock market will collapse. Renowned stock market gurus have been making this “nasty” prediction for quite some time
Among them is forecaster François Trahan of Trahan Macro Research. In an interview with The Press, he says he expects a recession and a significant stock market decline, going so far as to anticipate “a time bomb” in the market. Last September, he predicted a 35% fall in the S&P 500, which barometer of the New York Stock Exchange would fall to 2,800 points. At the time, the S&P stood at 4275 points. Today, the S&P 500 is close to 4900 points.
Two years ago, François Trahan declared on the set of a public affairs program on TVA that he anticipated an “apocalyptic” situation for the years 2023 and 2024, which situation would possibly result in an unemployment rate on the rise and a financial crisis. We’re still waiting for it…
For information, you should know that Trahan was inducted into the Institutional Investors Hall of Fame as a strategist in 2016. Among his major predictions, in 2007 he predicted the end of the speculative real estate bubble, which had dragged the stock market into a dramatic descent into hell in 2008 and 2009.
- Listen to the economy segment with Michel Girard via QUB :
EVEN MORE ALARMIST…
François Trahan is not the only guru in the camp of great pessimists.
I found another even more pessimistic and alarmist than François Trahan.
This is the American economist and best-selling author Harry S. Dent, of the HS Dent firm. He recently warned the Fox News Digital audience that 2024 would be the biggest crash of his life, as stocks, crypto and real estate would collapse spectacularly during the year.
His predictions? An 86% crash for the S&P 500 index; a 92% crash for the NASDAQ; a 96% fall in cryptocurrency; and a 50% collapse for the average house.
The cause? These assets are all in a bubble as prices have reached dangerous and unsustainable heights, according to Dent. “I think 2024 will be the biggest crash year we’ll see in our lifetime,” he said.
You may be wondering: what has this Harry S. Dent predicted in the past to give him some credibility?
- Listen to the economy segment with Michel Girard via QUB :
PROVEN PREDICTIONS
In 1988, when the Dow Jones fluctuated between 1879 and 2184 points in the months following the famous crash of October 1987, Dent predicted that the Dow Jones would reach 10,000 points before the year 2000. Which was the case .
In my column The Dow Jones at 35,000 pointspublished in The Press of July 11, 1998, when the Dow Jones was at 9100 points, I devoted my column to the new stock market predictions that Dent had made in the renowned weekly of Wall Street Journal, Barron’s.
Dent predicted that within 10 years, by 2008, the Dow Jones could ultimately reach a peak of 35,000 points, almost four times the level of the Dow at that time. In the “worst case” scenario, he believed that the Dow would reach at least the 21,500 point mark.
Reality? The Dow Jones reached the 14,000 point mark at the end of September 2007. This peak was subsequently followed by a gigantic stock market rout until the low in March 2009.
And from there, the stock market went back to extraordinary heights. The Dow Jones finally crossed the 20,000 point mark in 2017 and that of 35,000 points in July 2021.
Today it is strutting above 38,000 points, a historic high.
And Harry S. Dent is now predicting a stock market collapse.
Fingers crossed he gets it royally wrong this time!
That said, on the stock market, if you predict that it will fall sharply and you keep the same speech as long as that happens, one of these days you will be able to say: I told you so!