Are we heading towards an Ensemble-LR alliance?

A technical profile, or ultimately rather political? The quest for the future head of government continues, Wednesday, for Emmanuel Macron, the hypothesis of an alliance with the Republicans is one of the options.

As of Wednesday, September 4, we have gone 50 days without a full-time Prime Minister, but a new hypothesis seems to be emerging. What if Emmanuel Macron were to form an alliance with the Republicans to appoint a right-wing Prime Minister, in this case Xavier Bertrand.

This is the plan that Nicolas Sarkozy has been advocating since the June 2022 legislative elections, and which he has been calling for, even more strongly, in recent days. A plan that has more and more supporters on the right. Starting with Édouard Philippe. The former Prime Minister is taking advantage of the troubled context to formalize his candidacy for the presidential election, in an interview with the weekly The Point. A way of appearing as a fixed point, a landmark in this period of political crisis, and as the natural leader of this future alliance between the right and the central bloc in the perspective of the Elysée election, whether it takes place in 2027 or before, he says. Until then, if the political situation today requires a right-wing Prime Minister, it is because, according to Nicolas Sarkozy’s formula, observing the results of the European elections in June and the legislative elections in July, “France is as right-wing as it has ever been.” Yes, and… No, one would be tempted to answer.

It is true that the extreme right came out on top in both the European and the first round of the legislative elections. The vast Ipsos survey published by The World also shows that the main driver of the RN vote remains, again and again, the rejection of immigration. And that security issues still weigh heavily. In Parliament, the 166 survivors of the Macronist bloc lean to the right. Finally, since 2022, on texts as emblematic as the pension reform or the immigration law, a right-wing majority has emerged as best it can in Parliament.

The logical answer could be to appoint a right-wing Prime Minister who leads a right-wing policy, but it is not that simple. Firstly because in the Assembly, even if it is far from an absolute majority, it is the left-wing bloc that has the most deputies. The Republican right has never had so few in the entire Fifth Republic, only 47 deputies! Then because public opinion has also expressed strong social expectations, for example in terms of purchasing power or the repeal of the pension reform. In fact, the only clear message from the second round of the legislative elections is the refusal of a clear majority of French people to see the RN come to power. Winning back Le Pen voters without getting involved with the RN leaders is the new challenge “at the same time” that awaits the future Prime Minister, like the right-wing candidate, Édouard Philippe or another, in 2027.