“We remember the glorious strategies, much less the boring ones.“There is one that has remained in the memory of Cyril Abiteboul when he managed Renault F1. Imola 2020. On the 51st of the 63 laps of the Grand Prix of Emilia-Romagna, Valtteri Bottas burst a tire and causes the entry of the car safety. Unlike the other drivers, Daniel Ricciardo remained on the track with his hard tires and moved up to 3rd place. The race resumed five laps from the checkered flag. Despite his worn tires, the Australian resisted and climbed on the podium The French team exults: its audacious strategy gives it its second podium of the season, the second for Renault since 2011.
The result of intense reflection, a collection of data and solid experience, strategy is inseparable from Formula 1. It is decided out of sight in the greatest of secrets. Red Bull has mastered this after years of chasing insolent Mercedes. “This team had a strong advantage in this sector“, indicates Cyril Abiteboul. “When you have everything to lose or everything to gain, the ability to take risks is completely different. Red Bull’s position allowed them to be bold against a team that was very dominating.“It’s all the salt of a sport where nothing is ever written in advance.
Past seasons, free practice… What weight on race choices?
F1 is a novel of anticipation. The success of a Sunday begins long before the lights go out. “There are decisions to be made several weeks before on the choice of tires“, explains Cyril Abiteboul. Arriving on a circuit, a team already has a multitude of data and scenarios in hand, thanks to the acquisitions of previous editions and work on a simulator. “We project ourselves on the track, the competitiveness of the car, what we know about rubber, the abrasiveness of the tarmac, our possible position on the grid. This data is accumulated from one year to the next. A stable is an enormous intellectual capital. You have to be able to capitalize on previous years, on what you have learned, in order to determine what level of risk you want to take.“
/2022/04/22/phpxOS08i.jpg)
All these elements are synthesized and presented during a meeting on D-7 of the race which includes the engine, chassis, aerodynamics, reliability and race strategy engineering teams. We project the different scenarios and we recall the history of this Grand Prix: “These are points of vigilance which are based on important statistical data: the probabilities of rain, the probabilities of safety car, the probabilities of an incident in the first lap…“Then comes the time for driving on the track during free practice. Here again, the data collected proves to be crucial.”It is not necessarily visible to the general public“, slips Cyril Abiteboul. “These sessions have three objectives: to adjust the aerodynamic balance and optimize the car, to prepare the driver in particular for his qualifying exercise, to accumulate data during long runs to allow the strategy team to refine all the models and to simulate the scenarios of race.“
Plan A, change of tactics… How is the strategy established?
Thanks to all this work, the data box is full. All you have to do is extract the right race tactic. This emerges at the end of the qualifications. “This is the culmination point in the development of the strategy“, slice Cyril Abiteboul, even if”it is often confirmed definitively on Sunday morning.“How do you come up with a plan A and the alternatives? To better understand, you have to distinguish between deterministic and probabilistic scenarios.”In the former, you race on your own, without any other cars. You start with your car specs, tire allowance, weather data and figure out which race will be the fastest.“
This ideal scenario without competition only makes sense if it is confronted with the “interference” that other cars will produce. “We run tens of thousands of cases, what-list scenarios. What happens if there is a crash, if this car stops on lap 5, if it does not stop… “All incidents create so-called probabilistic simulations, which will allow the team to adopt the best strategy and make a decision more easily during the race.”We only retain a few scenarios at the end, then only one for the start of the race with back-up scenarios that we can fall back on depending on identified race events. It can be safety car, more or less rapid degradation of tires, rain…“
Between strategist and driver, who makes the decision in the race?
Each team has its race strategy team. It is she who decides on the plan and its ramifications before the start, and during the race. “If we have to evolve in the strategy towards another scenario that has been anticipated, the decision is the responsibility of the strategy group at 90%“, specifies Cyril Abiteboul. At Alpine, it is the responsibility of Matthieu Dubois and his team. Recruited from the time of Renault F1, he has now reached maturity. “We capitalized on him“, explains Cyril Abiteboul. “There is a very steep learning curve.“These key men are highly sought after and do not move once in office as is the case at Mercedes or Red Bull.
Their expertise is invaluable, but when an unforeseen scenario arises, the decision can go all the way to the top of the pyramid. “You have to be able to interact between the different components of the team to make a quick decision. Depending on the degree of risk and opportunity, it can go up to the team principal.”
“Fernando Alonso has incredible strategic intelligence. Everyone wonders how he can have such a perception of the race from where he is.”
Cyril Abiteboul, former boss of the Renault F1 teamat franceinfo: sport
Concentrated on his race, the pilot intervenes little on the strategy. On the other hand, his information is essential on the realization or not of the imagined strategy. “Only they can know how much they save the car and the tires to get where they are.“
In his bucket, he is in the best position to choose the tires in case of rain or drying track. His vision on the exit of a safety car is taken into account. “They have a great understanding of what is happening around the safety cars, an extremely important parameter this year because the gaps have narrowed. It can save 5, 10, 15 seconds. In a very compact peloton, that can be five places.“But not all bring the same amount:”All pilots are not identical and do not all have the same acumen on strategy“, specifies Cyril Abiteboul.
Having become a tactical weapon for several seasons, what is the undercut?
Overtaking an opponent without overtaking him on the track is possible. The result of a bold but calculated strategic choice, the undercut has become a formidable weapon. The principle is simple: enter the pits one or two laps before his rival and take advantage of his new tires to nibble enough time to stay ahead of him when he returns to the track after changing his tires in turn.
“It’s exciting to see who is going to be brave enough to dive into the pits first. It’s a pretty enjoyable moment, an intellectual game of telling yourself when you can go there with enough chances for it to work. It is very powerful and deterministic. But it really works.”