This text is part of the special Research section: climate issues
Climate change is undermining old simulation models of hydrometeorological hazards. A professor from the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM) is leading a research project to refine the prediction of these events and thus predict the risks of damage to the province’s critical infrastructure.
The ice storm that plunged thousands of Quebec homes into darkness last December cost Hydro-Québec at least $55 million. A hefty bill, but less than that of 70 million dollars linked to the damage from the derecho of May 2022, a violent storm line which generated horizontal winds reaching up to 144 km/h.
For several years, Hydro-Québec has been looking for ways to better understand how hydrometeorological hazards such as intense winds, precipitation and floods will affect their electricity production, distribution and transmission activities. In the context of climate change, past statistics no longer help predict these events as much as before.
In 2018, the state corporation approached Philippe Gachon, professor in the Department of Geography at the University of Quebec in Montreal and member of the Center for the Study and Simulation of Climate on a Regional Scale (ESCER). “The ESCER Center has developed a high-resolution regional climate model, which allows better predictability of hydrometeorological hazards,” explains the researcher. The development of this model was funded by the government of Quebec.
Better visibility
The ESCER Center recently obtained a $3.6 million grant from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) to carry out a research project aimed at improving knowledge of the risks associated with hydrometeorological hazards, in a context of climate change.
“We will help to predict the possible consequences of intense winds and probable maximum precipitation and floods on the activities of Hydro-Québec, but also of certain mining companies and the Ministry of the Environment and the Fight against Climate Change, Wildlife and Parks of Quebec (MELCCFP),” specifies the researcher. Polytechnique Montréal and the University of Quebec in Abitibi-Témiscamingue are also participating in the project, particularly for the part that concerns mines.
But what exactly is a high-resolution climate model? “It is a model that allows, for example, to properly reproduce the topography of a place – such as the St. Lawrence valley or the Appalachian or Laurentian mountains – which has an impact on winds and precipitation patterns », explains Philippe Gachon. He adds that such models are necessary to predict most extreme precipitation events because, among other things, they can reproduce storm cells.
The information generated by the research project is intended to be integrated into the decision-making processes and risk analyzes of Hydro-Québec, the MELCCFP and mining companies.
A partner of choice
Ouranos, an organization that works to help Quebec society better adapt to climate change, will also be part of the adventure. It is also the project’s largest financial partner, after NSERC. But its contribution goes beyond providing funds.
“Several of our specialists in climate data analysis will participate in supervising students with other researchers,” explains Alain Bourque, general director of Ouranos. Our specialty is precisely to help students and researchers keep one foot in the academic world and another in the reality of other stakeholders, such as in this case Hydro-Québec and mining companies. »
Alain Bourque also believes that the creation of expertise will represent one of the most important results of this project. “We can imagine that many of the students who will do masters or doctorates as part of this initiative will then work in this field, in state or private companies, or at university,” he underlines.
For its part, Ouranos will benefit from new data and more precise hydrometeorological scenarios at local scales, which it will be able to make accessible to other users.
Share knowledge
Philippe Gachon’s team has already obtained encouraging results by testing its simulation model retrospectively on the derecho of 2022. It will soon begin to use it prospectively, to predict future events. Currently, the model has a resolution of 2.5 km, but the researcher believes that this precision could eventually reach a few hundred meters. This would make it possible, for example, to measure and compare the effects of heat islands in asphalt areas and green zones in a city like Montreal.
“It will also be important to work on the transfer of knowledge to government decision-makers,” believes the researcher. Our governments need cutting-edge knowledge to implement truly effective climate change adaptation measures. »
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