Ukraine has gradually beefed up its anti-aircraft defense systems to guard against massive strikes from Russia. Western armaments have made it possible to increase the interception rate, without yet filling all the gaps.
One more tragedy in Kherson. At least five civilians were killed and sixteen were injured by a new Russian strike on Tuesday February 21. The head of the regional military administration, Oleksandr Prokudin, attributed it to Grad multiple rocket launchers. The city liberated in mid-November by Ukrainian forces is one of the points most regularly targeted by Russian troops. Almost a year after the start of the war, Ukraine still needs to protect itself from deadly projectiles from the sky. The number of war victims continues to swell, day after day, and the resilience of the population is put to the test. For kyiv, the strengthening of its anti-aircraft defense has become a strategic issue in this ongoing conflict.
“Anti-aircraft defense is the area that has been most effectively reinforced since October” within the Ukrainian forces, emphasizes Nicolas Gosset, military expert at the Royal Higher Institute for Defense in Brussels. kyiv mainly has Soviet-made S-300 and BuK M-1 surface-to-air missile systems, but can now rely on Western equipment. The British Stormer HVM, French Crotale, Italian short-range Aspide, German IRIS-T or Norwegian medium-range Nasams…
This equipment is still arriving in small amounts, but its wide variety already represents a challenge for the Ukrainian military command. “The problem is to coordinate this assembly of materials which do not have the same type of operation and which are not of the same generation”analyzes Thibault Fouillet, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. “But the adaptation of the Ukrainian forces is quite phenomenal, with learning on the job.”
Better intercepted missiles
Thanks to these missiles, the effectiveness of the Ukrainian army has increased month after month. Researcher Thibault Fouillet assesses the Ukrainian interception rate at 30% at the start of the war, then at 50% in the summer of 2022, “with the first deliveries” of Western weapons, before now settling between 70% and 90%. The general Valeriy Zalouzhniy, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, affirmed that it was 76%, in an interview granted in mid-December to the weekly The Economist (article in English). “The Ukrainians, no doubt, are making a bit of a joke about their results. But it is undeniable that they have considerably increased their interception capacity”agrees Nicolas Gosset.
“There are holes in the racket, but this anti-aircraft defense has been built from bits and pieces since the summer. What has been achieved is quite remarkable.”
Nicolas Gosset, military expert at the Belgian Royal Higher Institute for Defenseat franceinfo
Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense still suffers from shortcomings. “We are still far from the stated ambition of wanting to build an Israeli-style ‘Iron Dome’, and the multi-layered defense [couvrant à la fois la courte, moyenne et longue portée] is not integral”, tempers Nicolas Gosset. In order to respond to attacks coming from more than 100 kilometers away, leaders now place their hopes in the American Patriot system. Washington, Berlin and Amsterdam have promised to deliver this advanced equipment, capable in particular of neutralizing cruise missiles.
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Ukraine, as often, must arm itself with patience. Several months of training are necessary before mastering the complexity of the Patriot. Since mid-January, already, a hundred Ukrainian soldiers have been devoting their days to it on the American military base of Fort Sill, in Oklahoma (United States). kyiv will also have to wait until the summer before receiving the system SAMP/T Mamba, promised by France and Italy. This alternative to the American system will be supplied with several hundred Aster missiles.
“Medium and long-range systems will fill the gaps in our air defense capabilities to combat ballistic targets.”
Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zabrodskyin an analysis published by the Ukrainian state agency Ukrinform
But the increase in the interception rate is not only due to materials obtained by Ukraine. “At the same time, there is a decrease in the Russian stock of guided or precision ammunition, such as the Kalibr”underlines Nicolas Gosset, relying on the tables summarizing the nature of the rockets fired by the Russians. “Moscow is sending more Soviet hardware and missiles originally designed to carry nuclear warheads.”
However, Ukrainian strategists are not betting on a shortage. “The worst thing to do would be to simply wait for the strikes to end, with no ammunition”commented in December to the Ukrainian state agency Ukrinform (text in Ukrainian) Lieutenant-General Mykhaïlo Zabrodsky, member of the parliamentary committee on security. Especially since a “Surface-to-air defense is never infallible and depends on many parameters: new technology, strike saturation…”recalls Thibault Fouillet.
A war that runs out of ammunition
Anti-aircraft and anti-missile munitions, on the other hand, are not unlimited on the Ukrainian side. A weak point identified by Russia, which began to launch balloons trailing at the end of a rope a metal reflector and a radar. The Ukrainian air force does not rule out possible intelligence operations, but its spokesperson believes that these aircraft are intended to force the Ukrainians to “to waste [leurs] resources, including anti-aircraft missiles, on these objects that cost almost nothing”. On Wednesday February 15, half a dozen balloons were shot down over kyiv.
“This low-cost strategycomments Nicolas Gosset, bets on a surprise effect, the effect of which will be limited in time.” The fact remains that anti-aircraft missiles, more often than not, are much more expensive equipment than their targets. For example, a German IRIS-T missile costs 430,000 dollars (about 404,000 euros), against 20,000 dollars (about 18,800 euros) for an Iranian-made Shahed-136 drone. “The Russians, who follow the Western media debates, know well that the stocks of kyiv’s partners are limitedadds Nicolas Gosset. What can motivate this desire to intoxicate and saturate the anti-aircraft defense.
Ukraine is therefore faced with a major challenge in terms of detecting flying objects to be destroyed, and Washington has not forgotten to slip four air surveillance radars into its latest batch of military aid. However, this does not always solve the problem at lower altitudes. In particular, kyiv had to adapt, in its own way, to chase away the clouds of Shahed, identifiable by their scooter noise. “The Ukrainian air defense has had difficulties with drones, but is increasingly able to outsmart them, thanks in particular to a mobile application” allowing the population to report projectiles, continues Nicolas Gosset. In this little game, machine guns and cannons offer the most suitable response, provided they are quickly mobilized. “Previously, two thirds of drones hit their target, whereas the order of magnitude is more than 15-20% today”says the military expert.
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“Major metropolises like kyiv are now well defended” at short and medium range, notes Nicolas Gosset. But the “Critical infrastructures are scattered throughout the territory. It is complicated to have an anti-aircraft battery for each of them. What has been achieved is already remarkable.”
An issue at the heart of diplomatic negotiations
The problem of Ukraine is not so much technical as quantitative to register this defense in the long term. “Unfortunately, there are not as many means of air defense as they say”commented on Sunday with the RBC agency (in Ukrainian) Air Force spokesman. A call from the foot to the allies of kyiv, so that they undertake new deliveries. The defensive profile of this equipment also arouses less debate among these partners, unlike multiple rocket launchers, combat tanks and hunters.
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In mid-October, the sixth summit in the “Ramstein” format, had moreover been devoted to anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense. A priority in the eyes of kyiv’s allies, even before there is any question of tanks and fighters. Four months later, the situation has hardly changed, recalled the German Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, on February 15 in Brussels: “The question of air defense and the question of ammunition replenishment are much more important right now than the fighter jet discussion.”
“The delivery of 30 or 40 aircraft would provide a capability with temporary effects. Ground-to-air defence, active since the start of the conflict, is a long-term capability.”
Thibault Fouillet, researcher at the Strategic Research Foundationat franceinfo
Berlin, precisely, is carrying out the “Sky Shield” project in parallel (in English), to develop an integrated anti-missile shield on a European scale composed of IRIS-T, Patriot and the Israeli Arrow-3 system. This program, marked by the absence of France or Poland, aims in particular to facilitate the acquisition of defense equipment. After the signing of a declaration of intent by the first fifteen participants in October, Ukraine immediately expressed its keen interest. The country undoubtedly has good arguments to defend its candidacy, he who has just spent a whole year fearing the sky.