Analysis | Who will replace Harris and Kovacevic?

By trading Johnathan Kovacevic and Jordan Harris in recent weeks, the Montreal Canadiens may not have parted ways with top players, but their departures nonetheless leave a void to fill on the defensive end.

Both, in fact, were carrying out missions that are far from being the specialty of some of their young teammates. The most thankless tasks obviously fell to Mike Matheson, Kaiden Guhle and David Savard. But the contribution of Kovacevic and Harris was not negligible.

To see this, we were specifically interested in three indicators: the quality of the opposition, the distribution of face-offs in which the players were involved and their use in numerical disadvantage.

The quality of the opposition is a metric that has been used in advanced statistics for a few years, but it can sometimes seem abstract. The specialized site PuckIQ has tried to simplify its application by dividing NHL players into three categories: the elite, the average and the plumbers (loose translation). We can then consider the number of minutes played by each player, at five-on-five, against opponents from each of these three groups.

Unsurprisingly, Guhle and Matheson are the Canadiens defensemen who have faced the “elite” in the largest proportion – just over 43% of their ice time. A fair bit further back is Savard. After him, Justin Barron, Harris and Kovacevic have taken down a similar share of the toughest assignments.

This line doesn’t particularly stand out in that regard, but the same can’t be said for Arber Xhekaj, who is at the bottom of the list. This confirms that in his second NHL season, Xhekaj was once again protected by his coaches, who mostly kept him off the opposing top two lines.

This protection of the big defender is also reflected in the distribution of faceoffs. It is understandable that the most defensively vulnerable players are used in fewer faceoffs near their goalie. And that is what happens to Xhekaj.

Conversely, at five-on-five, over 60% of faceoffs involving Johnathan Kovacevic have taken place in his own zone, a proportion comparable to that of Kaiden Guhle. Note that for this calculation, faceoffs in the neutral zone are ignored.

In this chapter, Jordan Harris (54.2%), Kovacevic’s regular partner, overtook David Savard (51.4%) during the last season.

230 minutes

The third element that caught our attention is the use in numerical disadvantage. From the next training camp, the Habs will have to start training at least one young regular defender in this phase of play.

Together, Kovacevic and Harris played 230 minutes short of one or two men last season. Someone will have to take their place.

Although Kovacevic was a 20-game bench injury last season, he was a regular part of the penalty kill rotation when he was in uniform. Harris was a lesser-used, regular in that squad, and a clear gap opened up between the top five and the rest.

The three defensemen who should take the most steps forward defensively in 2024-25 will undoubtedly be Jayden Struble, Justin Barron and Arber Xhekaj.

We can expect a rookie (Lane Hutson, Logan Mailloux, David Reinbacher…) to start the season in Montreal, but we can assume that they will be spared the toughest defensive missions. At least at the start of the campaign.

In the short term, Struble appears to be the most logical replacement for Harris. His defensive skills have been praised in both the AHL and the NHL. After a strong start with the Habs last season, however, his performance has eroded.

With Kovacevic gone, the door opens wide for Justin Barron, a right-hander like his former teammate. Already, we can see that he faced very decent competition last season. After spending several months in the American League to specifically refine his defensive game, and with a new contract in his pocket, he will have a unique chance to show that he is a full-time NHL player and, above all, that he is not a one-dimensional defender.

Finally, there is Arber Xhekaj. While he has bounced back from a rough start last season, it remains clear that he does not have the full confidence of his bosses when it comes to defending his territory. It is also curious that such a robust defender has essentially not played on the penalty kill.

He said, after signing a new contract a few weeks ago, that defensive play was now his priority. Earlier this week, he also explained to TVA Sports that he spent several hours during the summer with Adam Nicholas, the CH’s director of development.

We will see at camp if his homework has borne fruit. Because even with two players less, the competition in defense will not be less fierce. Especially to replace those who have left.