(Nashville) When is it too early to talk about the trade deadline anymore?
In Montreal, the issue has been settled for a while. With the Canadiens’ season flowing to the rhythm of the defeats that pile up, conversations are converging, slowly but surely, on the idea of a spring liquidation.
In Nashville, this obsession is, unsurprisingly, not as prevalent. This does not prevent the Predators from getting closer every day to a dilemma they will not have the choice to resolve.
Next summer’s unrestricted free agent cuvée is impressive, but its best-known names are those of players in their late 30s, sometimes in their late twenties, most of whom are likely to remain loyal to their current club (Evgeni Malkin, Kristopher Letang, Patrice Bergeron…) or are virtually guaranteed to change address (Phil Kessel in the lead).
Among those who, at 27 or 28, will benefit for the first time from this status, the leaders are Johnny Gaudreau, Filip Forsberg and Tomas Hertl.
The case of Forsberg deserves some attention. Because it defies a certain logic.
Since joining the NHL full-time in 2014-15, the Swede has been the Predators’ leading scorer, both in season and in the playoffs. His 400 points in the season make him the fifth scorer in franchise history, and if he made a long-term establishment in Tennessee, he would take the lead within three or four years. In the playoffs, he is the undisputed leader in both goals and points.
Still, the player and his team are procrastinating over their intentions for the future of their relationship. “I don’t really think about it,” said the Swede earlier this week after scoring four goals in a 6-0 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets. Managing Director David Poile, for his part, said he was not giving himself a deadline to make his decision.
Unbelievable
Those are two statements that are hard to believe. Forsberg is on the same team as center Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene, whose offensive contributions over the past few seasons have absolutely nothing to do with the $ 8million annual salary they both pocket. It should be noted, however, that they have had an excellent start to the campaign: Were they whipped by the fact that management left them both unprotected in the recent expansion draft? You will have to ask them.
So it is difficult, under these circumstances, to buy what the winger advises when he says his next contract is not on his mind. And its CEO is not more credible when he says he does not have a deadline to make up his mind.
The deadline for transactions has been set for March 21. If his team is not in a position to advance to the playoffs, Poile will have to decide: does he see Forsberg in Nashville for long? If not, it will trade it for sure while its value is high.
That being said, the current posture of his club does not make it easy for him. With a 12-10-1 record, the Preds are just inches from a playoff spot. The number of games they have played puts them at a bit of a disadvantage, but they can still hang on to the last two passes, and even finish in the top-3 of a central division where the expected hierarchy is jostled.
If the situation does not change, monetizing Forsberg for young players and draft picks, and consequently putting a stop to spring hockey, could hardly pass with the fans, who love the attacker.
What real impact?
But back to Forsberg. Few of the media follow the daily life of the team in this city where hockey enjoys great popularity, but their coverage of the moment testifies to the importance of the issue.
Mainly citing the services rendered, the newspaper The Tennessean asks the question frankly, “Can the Predators afford to let him go?” “
Athletic journalist Adam Vingan believes the Predators should say goodbye to him. He’s actually wondering if Forsberg is that much of an impact player.
The argument is frankly interesting. During the three weeks of activity he missed in November due to injury, his team continued their good work on the power play – his 24.6% save rate is currently the seventh best in the NHL . And senior management has proven over the years that tough decisions don’t scare him. Shea Weber, and more recently Ryan Ellis and Viktor Arvidsson, have all been replaced.
In addition, there are a few indicators that, despite an interesting offensive crop, Forsberg is not, NHL-wide, a dominant player in producing offense.
Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, among the 306 forwards who played more than 1,200 minutes five against five, he has reached the 90e rank for expected goals per 60 minutes when on the ice (3.43), at 118e rank for quality scoring chances (10.98) and at 139e rank for goals scored (2.57). In none of these three categories is he even the leader of the Predators.
This casts doubt on his ability to produce in the long term, as his decline will invariably begin during the term of his next contract.
David Poile achieved a master stroke in 2013 when he snatched Filip Forsberg from the Washington Capitals. It is now up to him to determine how his investment will continue to increase in value. By making him a Predator for life. Or by wishing him good luck in his next challenges.