When Justin Trudeau arrives in Washington on Wednesday for the North American Leaders’ Summit and a series of meetings with the President of the United States and members of his government, Joe Biden will be more than 800 kilometers from the American capital. . In an electric vehicle plant in Detroit, to be precise. Which says a lot about what preoccupies the president above all else and the persuasive challenges that await the Canadian prime minister south of the border.
The Canadian delegation chose to land in Washington on the eve of the “summit of the three amigos », Scheduled for Thursday. Ministers Mélanie Joly (Foreign Affairs) and Mary Ng (International Trade) as well as Mr. Trudeau and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland will continue meetings with Vice-President Kamala Harris and members of Congress. The goal: to convince not only President Biden, but also his entourage and influential members of the American government apparatus to give up once again their protectionist aims. A sprawling strategy that ended up bearing fruit during the renegotiation of NAFTA.
Canada is now particularly opposed to a tax credit associated with electric vehicles that would be built in the United States. A measure that would harm the Canadian auto industry, but also the American industry, which could no longer count on certain parts produced in this integrated market, warns Ottawa.
Few observers – if any – however expect this thorny issue to be resolved this week. Despite Ottawa’s best efforts. And the support of Mexicans, who share Canada’s concerns.
Because “Buy American” policies like this tax credit or the series of protectionist measures provided for in two congressional stimulus bills are popular with the American electorate. And this, for both Democrats and Republicans. The president, these days, is a little less so.
In addition, there is the significant influence of unions (especially in the automotive sector) in key states of the American political spectrum (such as Michigan). And an electoral calendar that provides for a presidential or mid-term election every two years. Difficult for the president to intervene to amend the protectionist projects voted in Congress. “Joe Biden has all of this in his eye, with a view to the elections of 2024 and 2022. He is a little stuck,” summarizes Frédérick Gagnon, holder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair at UQAM.
Another source of Justin Trudeau’s grievances: the line 5 pipeline, which crosses Michigan to transport Alberta oil to Ontario and Quebec and whose tap the American state wants to turn off.
Again, Joe Biden is unlikely to intervene. His government, which is betting big on the fight against climate change, is not very favorable to fossil fuels. The president revoked Keystone XL’s building permits upon taking office. And its Secretary of Energy, Jennifer Granholm, was previously governor… of Michigan, to be sure.
Pragmatic relationship to be redefined
This summit of North American leaders will be a return to traditions, after being abandoned by Donald Trump. Proof, in the opinion of former Canadian Ambassador to Washington and Mexico, Raymond Chrétien, that no one, not even the United States, can ignore their neighbors.
The importance of this alliance on the global geopolitical chessboard has however changed a lot since its creation, on the sidelines of the signing of NAFTA in 1994. Regarding foreign policy, Joe Biden is mainly concerned with China. The North American bloc seems almost outdated.
“We went from the three amigos to the three vecinos [voisins, en espagnol] Illustrates the expert on Canada-US relations in Washington Eric Miller. “The relationship has become transactional,” he summarizes, noting that Americans are very happy to count on Canada when their neighbor to the North can serve them, but less when calls for collaboration are made in the opposite direction. .
The American president will also have some requests for Justin Trudeau: the abandonment of PCR tests to travel from the United States to Canada, and a firmer position against China, especially with regard to Huawei’s place. in the 5G network. The next American ambassador to Canada, David Cohen, recently admitted that Washington is getting impatient. The Trudeau government’s new strategy for the Asia-Pacific region is likely to wait some time yet. But until then, Canada can remind the United States that it is still a useful ally and more than just a neighbor with whom disputes must be settled periodically. By supplying, for example, as it offers, in place of the Chinese market, the critical minerals necessary for the manufacture of solar panels or batteries for electric vehicles.
We went from the three “amigos” to the three “vecinos”
“You can’t take the relationship for granted. Biden is very pragmatic in his ties with his allies ”, also observes Frédérick Gagnon. “We must prove this week that, in certain key sectors, Washington cannot do without Canada. “
Hopefully, the auto workers the president meets in Michigan will agree.