Following in the footsteps of the United States which reinforced its military positions in Eastern Europe this week, Canada announced on Thursday that it too is considering sending soldiers to Poland and the Baltic countries, saying it is “very concerned about Russia’s threats” to Ukraine, summarized Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand during a visit to Latvia.
While diplomacy has been stalling for weeks to resolve the security crisis on the Russian-Ukrainian border, the sound of boots is increasingly heard in Europe, where the White House considers that an invasion of Ukraine by the Russia could occur “at any time,” said President Joe Biden’s spokeswoman Jen Psaki once again on Wednesday.
Washington even claimed the next day to have proof that Moscow is preparing “very violent propaganda videos” showing attacks against its interests in Ukraine to serve as a pretext for an invasion of the former Soviet republic.
However, this warning and this preparation for the response, which intensifies a little more every day, contrasts with the very reaction of Ukraine which, since the start of the crisis and especially from the front row of this conflict, is far to be so categorical about the risk of invasion and even calls on its Western allies to stop “panicking”.
On Thursday, the Ukrainian Defense Minister, Oleksiï Reznikov, moreover added a layer of it by judging the risk of a “significant escalation” to be “low”, thus fueling an asymmetry of perceptions in the face of the threat which is becoming increasingly more glaring. Threat that the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has reduced since the beginning of the crisis to a “complex diplomatic game”, rather than seeing in it a real risk of invasion.
“We have been living for years with the Russian threat to our border,” summarizes Bohdan Nahajlo, editor-in-chief of the daily Kyiv Post, joined this week by The duty in the Ukrainian capital. Even if some Ukrainians are preparing for a Russian military attack, most believe that these tensions are above all a bluff by Russia which, through this crisis, is seeking to obtain concessions from the West “in terms of security and geostrategic influence in the region.
By increasing the pressure on Ukraine, Moscow hopes to prevent this country from joining NATO, as several other eastern countries formerly under its fold have done in recent years, such as Romania and Bulgaria. . The Kremlin has also put on the table the withdrawal of the armies of the Alliance from these two countries before considering a de-escalation in the ongoing conflict.
“Russia’s intention is also to panic the Ukrainians in order to divide them better,” adds Mr. Nahajlo. And to give in to this panic is ultimately to play into the Kremlin’s hands. »
A minimized risk
The announcement of the repatriation of families and non-essential staff from the US embassy — followed by those from the Canadian and British missions — last week has left many Ukrainians stunned by the need for such a measure. “Quite frankly, these Americans are safer in Kiev than they are in Los Angeles … or in any other American city plagued by crime,” said a source close to President Zelensky quoted by the media. online BuzzFeed.
“There is not even evidence that an attack is being prepared,” said David Arakhamia, parliamentary leader of the ruling party and the most influential man in the Ukrainian parliament, last Saturday in the pages of the German magazine Der Spiegel . “But every morning we wake up and see in international media a new report on Ukraine with maps and arrows. Doesn’t that seem strange to you? »
Giving in to this panic is finally playing into the Kremlin’s game
On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin once again sought to muddy the waters by now posing as a victim of the current crisis, and this, after having nevertheless increased the number of these soldiers on its border with Ukraine and raised the specter of a “military and technical” response last December if its demands are not heard by the West.
The head of the Kremlin accused Washington and its allies of using Ukraine as an “instrument to train [la Russie] in an armed conflict”, and this, to better hit it afterwards “with sanctions harsher”, he said during a conference delivered in Moscow, following his meeting with the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán. Words which, for the moment, mainly penalize Ukraine, whose economy is suffering the most from current tensions, no doubt justifying the numerous calls for calm launched by President Zelensky.
An expensive fear
“This is probably one of the most important reasons for understanding this asymmetry in the perceptions of risk, launches Bohdan Nahajlo on the other end of Skype. The prospect of a frontal attack from Russia is implausible, but the mere existence of a threat is undermining investor confidence in Ukraine’s economy and spurring much-needed investment. »
Out of 136 European companies established in Ukraine and surveyed by the European Business Association, 17% are indeed considering moving to a region of Western Europe where the Russian threat does not exist.
In January, the Ukrainian central bank had to spend more than a billion dollars to avoid the fall of the hryvnia, the national currency, weighed down by the flight of foreign capital due to the concern expressed by the allies of Ukraine . Its price has lost 8.4% against the US dollar since Moscow stepped up its troop movements at the border last November.
Military maneuvers which, however, from the Ukrainian point of view, do not really depart from the daily life imposed by Russia on Ukraine since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the de facto occupation of the Donbass region by Moscow .
Another balance of power
“I wouldn’t say people are jaded,” says Bohdan Nahajlo. There is concern about one of the biggest threats since 2014. But objectively, with 100,000 troops, the Russians don’t have enough soldiers to attack major cities. And then, unlike 2014, they will face a much better prepared army, which suggests that all this is ultimately nothing more than chest bombing for strategic purposes. Russia is also trying to convince the Ukrainians that they cannot live without the Russians and that they will not be supported by the Europeans. »
A scenario battered by the aid of 1.2 billion euros promised to Kiev by Brussels to help the country get through this crisis and by the quest for unity of Westerners who, for weeks, have been affirming their support for Ukraine. against belligerent Russia.
On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron also tried to put Europe back at the heart of the ongoing peace negotiations, dominated until then by Washington, by discussing with Mr. Putin the “security guarantees” demanded by Moscow. during the third telephone conversation of the week on this subject with his Russian counterpart.
Mr. Zelensky for his part indicated that he had discussed with Mr. Macron an “acceleration of the peace process” within the framework of the so-called Normandy diplomatic format, which brings together Russia and Ukraine around the same table, under the mediation from Paris and Berlin. A maintenance of the discussions which, contrary to the threat of an invasion, seems for the moment to be more unanimous.
On Wednesday, the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, and Vladimir Putin indeed agreed on the fact that “an aggravation [de la crise en Ukraine] was in no one’s interest” and on the need to maintain “a spirit of dialogue”, Downing Street said after their telephone conversation.
With Agence France-Presse