Analysis | The ignored revolt of the western provinces


Every Wednesday, our parliamentary correspondent in Ottawa Marie Vastel analyzes a federal political issue to help you better understand it.

Quebec is no longer the whipping boy of the Prairies. At least, for now. Alberta and Saskatchewan have ceased to denounce that the “darling” of the Canadian federation would constantly benefit from preferential treatment. Instead, the western provinces maintain that they now want to draw inspiration from the Quebec model, threatening to ignore the Constitution in order to evade federal powers that no longer suit them. English Canada raised the specter of a constitutional crisis. The experts temper the anxieties. But they add that Ottawa should not completely ignore the grievances of the Prairies, as Justin Trudeau seems to be doing.

Western alienation has been inhabiting these provinces for decades. In recent months, however, it has turned into a “new manifestation of Western nationalism,” which constitutionalist Benoît Pelletier says he has never witnessed before.

Alberta’s new Premier Danielle Smith was elected to lead the United Conservative Party on a promise of a ‘sovereignty act’ that would allow her province to ignore federal laws and regulations that would run counter to it. of his interests. Although she backed down and eventually said she would recognize a setback from the Supreme Court, she also indicated Tuesday that she could retaliate with legislative changes or new legal challenges to try to achieve her ends.

His neighbor Scott Moe unveiled a “white paper” on Saskatchewan autonomy. Sparse of details, the 24-page document lists the province’s complaints and demands and promises to do as Quebec does: “act without asking permission”.

In Regina as in Edmonton, the premiers say they are following the example of Quebec. And even dare to declare that their province is “a nation within a nation”.

Manitoba has also joined these two neighbors in promising in turn not to impose the federal assault weapons buy-back program on its territory.

A quarrel more than a crisis

Danielle Smith’s sovereignty law will be declared unconstitutional, and Saskatchewan’s separatist manifesto has announced nothing concrete. The autonomist cabal is “clumsy” and more a matter of “bravado”, according to Patrick Taillon, of Laval University. “We are more in politics, positioning and symbolism than really investing in correcting the situation in the functioning of our federalism”, explains the constitutionalist.

Justin Trudeau and his ministers therefore have it easy to ignore the schemes of the western provinces. Intransigence, in the face of separatist or sovereigntist movements in Quebec, has worked in the past, notes Mr. Taillon.

The federal Prime Minister rightly replied on Wednesday to Danielle Smith — who opposes carbon pricing, who wants to exploit and export her natural resources — that it is the price of groceries, the fight against climate change and “to good jobs, not just for the next year, but for the next few decades,” which are of concern to Canadians. A response that looks like a closed door.

Mr. Trudeau may not be wrong to ignore the Prairies’ separatist demands for now. An official response would be premature, since these populist efforts suggesting sabotage of the Canadian Constitution are doomed to failure in court, confirms constitutional expert and University of Waterloo political scientist Emmett Macfarlane. The Supreme Court confirmed last year that the carbon tax was indeed within federal jurisdiction.

But these autonomist pretensions nevertheless carry a political and electoral risk (however slight, in these provinces with a conservative majority) for the federal Liberal government, notes Professor Macfarlane. Not to mention that they can destabilize Canadian democracy, by falsely claiming that it is possible to violate the Constitution.

Quebec, no longer listened to

However, the premiers of the West may not be completely wrong in wanting to draw inspiration from the Quebec model. Benoît Pelletier and Patrick Taillon believe that Canadian federalism should indeed be rebalanced.

However, the Prairies would do better to demand sectoral agreements, a tightening of federal spending power in their areas of jurisdiction, a right of consultation for certain federal appointments or during international trade negotiations. And not to claim from the rooftops that they can unilaterally exempt themselves from the areas of jurisdiction defined in the Constitution — something Quebec has never claimed.

Saskatchewan is also asking, along with its neighbors and Ontario, for more powers in immigration, like the agreement shared by Quebec and the federal government. “This asymmetrical federalism is doable,” argues Benoît Pelletier of the University of Ottawa. Except that Quebec’s requests for increased powers in immigration are also ignored by Justin Trudeau.

The fact that this autonomist common front in the Prairies is ideological, beyond being provincial, will probably comfort the federal Prime Minister in his choice not to listen to it. A broader consensus that would include Quebec also seems ruled out, since François Legault is not in tune with his conservative counterparts in the West, who also defend priorities that are not his – in the environment, in particular.

Justin Trudeau’s government therefore risks continuing to turn a deaf ear to its corner. And the provinces rage helplessly in theirs.

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