The number is staggering. More than 40,000 Syrians have been recruited in Syria in recent days to fight in Ukraine alongside the Russian armed forces, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH) said this week. This disturbing reinforcement of Kremlin troops by soldiers drawn from the lands of dictator Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Moscow, confirms the difficulty encountered on the ground by the Russians in the face of Ukrainian resistance. But it also risks bringing Ukraine closer to a Libyan scenario: for more than 10 years, in Libya, Russian and Syrian militias have been participating in the stalemate of the civil war.
“The Ukrainian army resisted the blitzkrieg of Vladimir Putin and inflicted enormous losses on its army, explains in an interview with the Homework Alexander Motyl, historian, specialist in international militias and professor of political science at Rutgers University, joined in New Jersey. Seeking help from the Syrians, Belarusians and Chinese, the Russian president indicates that, for him, the war is not going quite as he had planned. After more than 20 days of fighting, the parties are at an impasse, but, given the size and strength of the Russian army, the Ukrainians, by displaying this resistance on the battlefield, could actually come closer of a victory. »
The prospect is difficult to contemplate for Russia, which, according to the Syrian media Deir Ezzor 24, has opened two centers for the recruitment of soldiers, in Mayadine and Deir Ezzor, in the east of Syria, an area held by the regime. damask.
To date, 22,000 applications have been approved by Russian officers deployed in this country since 2015 by Moscow to help Bashar al-Assad, according to the OSDH. Information denied by the Syrian government, which denies the existence of such a recruitment campaign. “So far, no names have been registered, no soldiers are registered, and no one has traveled to Russia to fight in Ukraine,” Omar Rahmoun of the National Reconciliation Committee told AFP. .
According to Deir Ezzor 24, volunteers are enlisted for a period of six months and destined to become “guards” in Ukraine, for a monthly salary ranging from 200 to 300 US dollars. A fortune in a country where soldiers are only paid between 14 and 35 dollars a month and where young people are also struggling to find work.
Recruitment history
In addition, nearly 18,000 men have registered with the Baath party, in power in Syria, and will be selected by the Wagner group, according to the Observatory. This private Russian paramilitary company which has direct links with the Kremlin is active in several countries at war where Russia is trying to maintain its influence. She supported General Haftar’s forces in Libya. Its presence in Ukraine was noted by journalists from the Kyiv Post from the start of the Russian invasion on February 24.
The conflict in Syria, which has dragged on since 2011, has claimed half a million lives. It has also plunged 90% of the population into poverty, a phenomenon that facilitates the recruitment of men wanting to go and fight in Ukraine.
“It’s still too early to say what the presence of Syrian mercenaries in Ukraine will mean for the ongoing conflict,” drops from Arizona Candace Rondeaux, director of Future Frontlines, an American think tank on generational security. futures and democratic resilience. But what is known for certain is that Russian military contractors spared no effort to train, equip and deploy mercenaries from Syria and Sudan to battlefields outside of Russia. This is true for the conflicts in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh [revendiqué par l’Azerbaïdjan], and shows that Russia is convinced that its ground war in Europe can be fought inexpensively. »
The soldiers recruited in Syria are added to the Chechen soldiers, on whom Moscow also seems to want to rely to strengthen its positions on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Earlier this week, the leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, indicated in a video broadcast on the Telegram network that he was in the Kyiv region to fight alongside the invading Russian forces.
“The other day we were about 20 km from you Nazis in kyiv, and now we are even closer,” wrote the man accused by international NGOs of committing serious human rights violations. the person in the Caucasian republic crushed by Moscow which he now leads.
“Every war is different, but there are tactical similarities in how Russia uses its contract soldiers in Syria, Libya and now Ukraine again,” says Arizona State political science professor Candace Rondeaux. University. The desired effect is to confuse the minds of adversaries, giving the impression that these secret militias are everywhere and capable of anything. »
heavy losses
The Kremlin is implementing this strategy in the context where its invasion of Ukraine has not taken place with the speed announced and where Russian losses against the Ukrainian army are sending increasingly worrying signals to Vladimir Putin. On Tuesday, General Oleg Mityaev became the fourth senior Russian officer to be shot on the battlefield, said Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to the Ukrainian interior minister. This presence of generals on the front lines can be partly explained by logistical problems, but can also testify to the lack of motivation of the Russian troops to wage a war against their close Ukrainian cousins.
Monday evening, in a speech addressed to the Ukrainians and the Russians, the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, moreover underlined that Moscow had lost more troops since the beginning of its invasion than during the interminable war in Chechnya. He immediately called on the Russian military to surrender. “I know you want to survive,” he said, guaranteeing them that they would be treated decently if they dropped their arms.
“If the Ukrainians manage to maintain the momentum, they could indeed win,” said Alexander Motyl. But it is obviously too early to predict this victory with confidence. »
With Agence France-Presse