Despite a week-long ceasefire, conflicts persist between Hezbollah and the Israeli army, with recent attacks in southern Lebanon resulting in casualties. Violations from both sides have been reported, undermining the ceasefire’s stability. An investigative commission was formed to address these violations, yet it is unlikely to classify incidents as major breaches. While the ceasefire hasn’t fully resolved tensions, it has provided some relief and a chance for peace amid ongoing hostilities.
The Fragile Nature of the Current Ceasefire
Despite a ceasefire being in place for a week, reports indicate that both Hezbollah and the Israeli army continue to launch rockets at each other. Recent attacks in southern Lebanon have resulted in the deaths of eleven individuals, as reported by local sources. This situation has prompted analysis from Thomas Gutersohn, a correspondent for the Middle East.
Assessing the Ceasefire’s Viability
While one might still refer to this situation as a ceasefire, it remains tenuous as long as both sides refrain from officially declaring its end. Numerous violations have surfaced recently; for instance, the Israeli military targeted a Lebanese army excavator, injuring a soldier in the process. Such actions clearly contravene the ceasefire agreement, as the Lebanese army is responsible for maintaining security in southern Lebanon. Concurrently, Hezbollah has retaliated by firing rockets at the contested Shebaa Farms, which remain under Israeli control. These occurrences highlight the delicate balance of the ceasefire, which requires daily reaffirmation from both parties.
Understanding the Root of Hostilities
Israeli troops are still stationed in Lebanon, with plans for withdrawal within the next two months. This situation poses a significant challenge for Hezbollah, as they find it unacceptable. The ceasefire appears to have been negotiated with a bias, granting Israeli soldiers continued presence in Lebanon while requiring Hezbollah to retreat to its territories by the year’s start. The current offensive actions by Hezbollah suggest dissent among their ranks, as they label their strikes as warning shots while still aiming to maintain the ceasefire. Nevertheless, the atmosphere remains perilously charged.
The Role of the Investigative Commission
As part of the ceasefire arrangements, an investigative commission has been established to look into any violations. This panel includes representatives from various nations, including the USA and France. However, it’s anticipated that the commission will refrain from labeling any incidents as significant breaches of the ceasefire. There is a shared international understanding of the need to uphold the ceasefire, particularly from the Biden administration, which brokered the agreement and views it as a success. Consequently, the commission may focus on de-escalation, despite both sides having committed violations.
Achievements and Impacts of the Ceasefire
While the ceasefire has not entirely resolved the tensions, it has contributed to a degree of calm and provided a potential avenue for peace. Just last week, the Israeli military conducted extensive bombings in Beirut and other Lebanese cities, claiming many civilian lives. Additionally, Hezbollah was actively firing rockets at Israel, often targeting populated areas. The ceasefire has enabled many Lebanese individuals to return to their hometowns, although it is likely that more have returned than the Israeli forces would prefer. Skirmishes continue in border villages where Israeli soldiers remain, creating a charged atmosphere as residents await their return. While the ceasefire has not fully alleviated the situation, it has offered much-needed respite for both sides.