The end of the 2004-2005 lockout that cost the NHL an entire season of activity came with an ambitious promise: that of “parity” in the league.
However, since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the gap between strong teams and weak teams has been the widest in 25 years, confirms a compilation of The Press. The fixed salary cap of recent years may well explain this phenomenon, believe two administrators of NHL teams.
Not since 1997 has the gap between the performance of good and bad teams been so marked. The most powerful clubs are more powerful than before, and the weaker clubs follow the opposite trend.
For the purposes of this report, we were interested not in the number of ranking points, but rather in the rate of points accumulated (eg, 2 points out of 4 = .500). This is to compare seasons where the number of games is not identical and to include indiscriminately draws and defeats in overtime or penalty shootout.
In order to mitigate the impact of exceptional seasons (for example the one just concluded by the Boston Bruins), we calculated the average of the top five and bottom five teams in the overall rankings for each season since 1997-98.
Thus, over the past three seasons, the leading teams have signed their three best performances in a quarter of a century. From 1997 to 2020, only once has this group exceeded the .700 mark. This threshold has just been crossed three times in a row.
In the cellar, the situation is similar. From 2006 to 2020, only once had the average of the weakest clubs fallen below .400. We have also just witnessed a hat-trick.
It was in 2021-2022 that the gap between strong teams and weak teams was the widest. The breakout was particularly telling in the Eastern Conference, where the last team to qualify for the playoffs had 16 points more than their closest pursuer.
The gap between the extremes has narrowed this year – the equivalent of about two ranking points. But the trend remains.
Limited effects
Three events in particular could have had an impact on the disparity between NHL teams: the introduction of the point awarded for a loss in overtime, the end of ties as well as the imposition of a salary cap and the creation of a revenue sharing system.
First, the point awarded after a loss in overtime, which came into effect in 1999-2000. In theory, one would have thought that this measure would help weak teams. In fact, the ranking gap narrowed slightly over the following years, somewhat mitigating the impact of the appearance of four new franchises from 1998 to 2000.
However, after five seasons, the effect had faded. In 2003-04, the top five teams accumulated 24 points after an overtime loss. Weak teams: 25.
The end of draws, in 2005-2006, with the introduction of shootouts, created more available points. This measure, moreover, coincided with the imposition of a salary cap and the creation of a system of revenue sharing between organizations.
Without being immediate, the effect was real… but fleeting. From 2005 to 2012, the gap was consistently the lowest in our sample.
The 2012-13 lockout seemed to widen the gap again, despite a tightening in 2015-16. Since then, however, the trend has been clear. The leading group is moving away from the opposing group, with an obvious acceleration since 2020.
This is when the number of performances that we will qualify here as “extreme” exploded. We ranked the 749 teams in our sample from best (Boston Bruins, 2022-2023, .823 point rate) to worst (Atlanta Thrashers, 1999-2000, .238 point rate).
We refer to “extreme” performances as those of the two 10% brackets (75 teams each) at the ends of the spectrum. The limits have thus been set to records greater than or equal to .665 and less than or equal to .421.
From 1997 to 2020, there is no real trend in the total number of extreme performances. We note, however, that there was only one in 2007-2008, possibly the season in modern NHL history where competitiveness was highest between the teams.
However, the number of extreme performances has skyrocketed over the past three seasons: 39 in total, more than a quarter of the total for the past 25 years. It should be noted that the 2020-2021 campaign was highly extraordinary, when two teams could face each other up to 10 times. The normal calendar was nevertheless restored last year.
Hypotheses
In an attempt to explain the trend for the most recent three seasons, we submitted our data to two NHL team administrators.
Instinctively, the two targeted the same element: the salary cap, which has remained almost unchanged for three years. From 2019-2020 to 2022-2023, it went from 81.5 to 83.5 million.
The vast majority of teams thus find themselves with payrolls very close to the limit. Faced with equal or similar offers, are the best players more attracted to the best teams? asks one of our interlocutors.
Another suggestion, which stems a little from the rest: trade deadline liquidations. At this time, the salary of the players is much less than during the summer. And weak clubs are visibly receptive to offers. In total, in 2022 and 2023, the bottom five teams in the final standings traded 15 and 18 regulars, respectively. That’s way more than the seven in 2016.
And there is, finally, the issue of self-sabotage – “tanking”, in English. The reconstructions are longer than before, concedes an administrator. But are the clubs in the cellar systematically under reconstruction? wonders the other.
We can indeed say, without being mistaken, that the Chicago Blackhawks deliberately sank in the standings to obtain an enviable draft pick. Bet won: they will speak in the very first row next June. But can we assume that the Columbus Blue Jackets, without a carnage in their training, would have had such a miserable season? Probably not. This is not the signal they sent, in any case, by offering a contract of almost 10 million per year to Johnny Gaudreau last summer.
In decision-making circles, the idea of parity is rather considered as that of relative equality of opportunity, at least on paper. In September 2022, who saw the Boston Bruins or the New Jersey Devils so high? Or the Blue Jackets that low?
In the first round of the present series, the champions of the two associations fell into the hands of the last qualified teams, we are reminded.
Go for the general idea. Once the season begins, however, the reality is quite different. Although any team can win on any given night, the final standings don’t lie. And it does not shout parity.