The question was symptomatic to say the least. During a conference organized Thursday by the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal on the issues between Canada and China, its president, Michel Leblanc, asked his panelists if the business people who are going to China today must fear being arbitrarily arrested and imprisoned as they were “the two Michael” in the Meng Wanzhou case.
Director of Quebec representations in China until recently, Jean-François Lépine was one of these panelists. He assured that such an “extreme” case of “hostage diplomacy” is still not common and that Quebecers who live “in this market with extraordinary potential” “are not worried in their daily lives” . However, he could not help but quote the Foreign Office, which advises Canadians to “exercise great caution in China because of the risk of arbitrary application of local laws.”
Seated beside him on the stage, the former premier of Quebec, Jean Charest, first invited to put the development of the country in its historical context and regretted that Western countries still know so little about its reality and its challenges. . “We are witnessing a dialogue of the deaf,” lamented the one who is now associated with the law firm McCarthy Tétrault, in particular as a specialist in international trade and who advises Chinese companies there.
A better understanding of the situation in China would make it possible, among other things, to take stock of the “great internal political tensions” which are currently shaking it, noted Jean-François Lépine.
Internal issues
Signs of these internal tensions and difficulties were seen in economic data released this week. It reported a marked slowdown in Chinese economic growth from almost 8% over 12 months, to less than 5% in the last quarter. This braking action seems to have been largely self-inflicted. Determined to make his mark and ensure his reappointment as head of the country next year, President Xi Jinping has championed a “common prosperity” project whose declared aim is to avoid the failures of American capitalism. We aim, in particular, to curb the growth of inequalities by tightening the screws on real estate speculators, while pursuing ambitious greenhouse gas reduction objectives.
But now, the war against promising real estate and the most indebted of all, Evergrande, has shaken one of the main pillars of growth. In addition, so many coal-fired power stations have been closed for environmental and safety reasons that the energy supply is running out and its price has exploded, forcing temporary closures of factories and the reopening of coal mines. Fortunately, consumers in China’s new middle class have continued to ring the bells of store cash registers, but are threatened at any time of being forced into containment by a new wave of COVID-19. And there is no reason to believe that this situation will improve much in the coming months.
As China is the world’s second-largest economy and still its main engine of growth, these challenges are somewhat everyone’s business. As it also becomes a bit of everyone’s business when their behavior becomes erratic on the international scene.
Living with superpowers
Whether we like it or not, “China today is a superpower,” observed Jean Charest, and we know what superpowers can do when they encounter obstacles: respond to their “impulses” without consideration. for “the collateral damage” they can inflict on others. “Canada has a lot of experience with superpowers. We have one as a neighbor ”. “The sooner we are realistic about this, the better able we will be to manage our relationship with China. “
The government of Quebec should soon unveil its new policy towards the Asian continent, recalled Jean-François Lépine. There will surely be a lot of talk about the economy and China. The former diplomat, however, fears that relations with her will remain difficult. “Will China behave more responsibly when it becomes the world’s largest economic power?” It remains to be seen. But for now, the political climate in China does not favor it. “