Every Wednesday, our parliamentary correspondent in Ottawa Marie Vastel analyzes a federal political issue to help you better understand it.
The race for the leadership of the Conservative Party has not even officially started and the knives are already drawn. One side brought up past corruption allegations, while the other brandished accusations of treason. Tempers could calm down on both sides for the rest of the campaign. But the personalities of the two presumed leaders, Pierre Poilievre and Jean Charest, as well as the debate on the conservative identity that they intend to engage in, rather suggest the opposite. Which will do nothing, if that is the case, to ease the tensions that torment the large conservative family.
The exchange on Twitter surprised many on Sunday. Long-time organizer Jenni Byrne, who lends a hand to candidate Pierre Poilievre, welcomed Gérard Deltell’s support for Jean Charest recalling that the former had once called the latter the “godfather” of the Quebec Liberal Party — a reference to organized crime for which Mr. Deltell apologized two years later. MP Alain Rayes, who is preparing to co-chair a possible Jean Charest campaign, replied that no one had ever reported seeing any good in Mr.me Byrne. “Erin O’Toole treated you like family. You stayed at his house and stuck a knife in his back. »
Leadership races rarely result in eulogies. But the debates are usually more political than low level.
Senator Leo Housakos, Poilievre’s co-campaign manager, says his team will run “a positive campaign”. In the same breath, he indulged in an interview with a tirade of reproaches against Jean Charest. “A circumstantial conservative”, who turned his back on a “divided” Progressive Conservative Party to become a provincial Liberal whose government was involved in the Charbonneau commission. Saying he simply wants to recall Mr. Charest’s journey, so that the Conservatives “have a balanced perspective”, Mr. Housakos above all gives the impression that the attacks will not stop anytime soon.
The Charest camp expected this kind of strategy from the scathing Pierre Poilievre, but repeated that he would show restraint. Mr. Rayes rather gave in at the first provocations. ” It was stronger than me. There will be no others,” he assured. His patience and that of his team will have to be tireless, however, in a race that will stretch over several months and in which Jean Charest seems more and more ready to embark.
More polarized than the previous ones
Especially since this contest will oppose two visions of conservatism which are struggling to reconcile: a progressive conservatism and another stemming from the reformist heritage. “Several say that it is the soul of the party that is at stake right now,” relates a Conservative.
This time, the protagonists are even further apart on the political spectrum, and several of their supporters do not see themselves rallying if their foal loses the race. Both the candidacy of Mr. Charest and that of Mr. Poilievre seem to divide the troops.
The winner could also be in a better position than his predecessors to hope to become Prime Minister, after three terms of a Liberal government. “The race is likely to bear witness to the importance of the issues at stake. And if the camps conceive of it as a first step towards the post of prime minister, we can expect heated debates and fiery rhetoric,” predicts a second party source.
This weekend’s quarrel on Twitter will therefore have acted as the first round, between a Charest team who made it clear that they would not let themselves be done and a Poilievre camp who warned them that the game would not be easy. .
While many conservatives fear that all of this heralds a nasty campaign that will leave scars, others — less numerous than the pessimists — hope that this bitter exchange will stop there, having allowed the overflow of emotions to be evacuated and perhaps to even be made to understand to the teams that it is better from now on to change tone.
Pierre Poilievre is however recognized as a fierce adversary. Nor does Jean Charest have the reputation of being gentle as a lamb.
The next few days or weeks will tell us if this duel will be confirmed. The rules of the race are still awaited. Meanwhile, Mr. Poilievre was courting support in Montreal earlier this week. Jean Charest will meet with members of the caucus on Wednesday evening in Ottawa.
All leadership races exacerbate the fault lines within the formation concerned. The Conservative Party’s last two, however, led to two inside offensives, which ended up chasing the winner in less than three years and two years, respectively. This led to the creation of a marginal party by Maxime Bernier, then to a revolt of Quebec progressive-conservatives, who this time mobilized to stand up to their more right-wing colleagues in the West.
Conservatives will have to hold their breath and hope that this third race in four years will reconcile the different factions for good. And let it not be the Liberals who come out on top.