Every Wednesday, our parliamentary correspondent in Ottawa Marie Vastel analyzes a federal political issue to help you better understand it.
Erin O’Toole should finally succeed in getting rid of her troubles, by showing up for the start of the parliamentary term accompanied by her deputies all vaccinated or provided with a medical exemption justifying that they are still not. But it was without foreseeing that the Liberals of Justin Trudeau would refuse to deprive themselves of this stake of breach so profitable. The Liberals have instead chosen to tighten the criteria for compulsory vaccination of elected officials – even if it means blending in with their contradictions. And the Conservatives have given them plenty of time to keep hitting that nail – by stubbornly refusing to end the questions once and for all.
Faced with the absolute silence of Erin O’Toole, the Liberals have a nice game to indicate that five to twelve of the 119 Conservative MPs are not vaccinated and that they have obtained a medical exemption in order to nevertheless enter the Commons .
However, this proportion of elected officials is “statistically improbable,” insisted the government House leader, Mark Holland. Because only one to five people out of 100,000 in the general population have a contraindication justifying a medical exemption from vaccines against COVID-19, recently assessed the chief medical officer of Toronto.
Either, the number of potentially unvaccinated Conservative MPs seems to exceed this proportion – their number in the caucus would amount to 4,000 to 10,000 in 100,000, if we keep the Toronto comparison, according to these rumors that are being made. pleasure to propagate the liberals.
But this proportion of justified exemptions seems just as “improbable” among officials, who say they are 98% vaccinated and that Justin Trudeau said he took his word for last week. In addition to these good students, 3,405 others requested accommodations citing medical, religious or discrimination exemption. This would represent a rate… of 1200 civil servants out of 100,000. Here again, more than the statistics cited ad nauseam by Mr. Holland on Monday.
Civil servants, however, are entitled to the benefit of the doubt. The “severe” criteria promised by the Prime Minister to limit the number of exemptions have never been communicated. On the other hand, the elected Conservatives will soon have to prove that their requests for medical exemptions evoke the only two criteria accepted by the Public Health of Ontario and Quebec: a serious allergy to vaccine components or a history of myocarditis.
A “contradiction” in the political message, observes the professor of political science at Laval University Eric Montigny. “If we are more picky about members of Parliament than what we demand in our own policy for public servants, we find ourselves at odds with the government’s message. And that, in terms of the credibility of the message, is more difficult. “
The proverbial elastic “is quite stretched,” he sums up.
A silence that does not help anything
In the opposing camp, Erin O’Toole did not help his troops much by refusing to close this debate. That his Beauceron deputy Richard Lehoux announces that he has been infected with COVID-19 after having rubbed shoulders with his colleagues for two days in caucus last week, even less.
Have unvaccinated deputies isolated themselves, as recommended by Public Health? No answer. Will the entire caucus be tested? No answer either. The Conservative Party retorts that only “prolonged contact” (over 15 minutes to less than two meters) requires these actions. This would therefore have allowed almost all of them to appear in the Commons on Monday.
Quebec MPs clear their way by claiming to have taken a screening test this weekend. However, Public Health recommends doing so at least seven days after contact, even if a first test gives a negative result before that date.
As for the broader debate on the vaccination status of his troops, the Conservative leader just as refuses to say how many of them have a medical exemption. To the chagrin of some of his colleagues, who are frankly tired of dragging this ball for months.
At Queen’s Park, they are two to brandish a medical exemption among 124 deputies. In the National Assembly, all say they are vaccinated.
By wanting to spare his unvaccinated deputies and those who defend the confidentiality of their medical records, the Conservative leader finds himself prolonging his ordeal.
And it’s a safe bet that the Liberals will not let go anytime soon.
Justin Trudeau’s government is already promising to pass a bill by Christmas that will criminalize bullying or harassment of healthcare workers as well as any protest blocking access to healthcare facilities, as have been done. opponents of health measures this summer.
The throne speech also reiterated on Tuesday the government’s main priorities: economic recovery, the fight against climate change, indigenous reconciliation, but above all the “top priority” to end the pandemic. “For this, vaccination remains the best tool,” warned the Governor General’s address.