“Slippage”, for one, “dangerous amalgamation” for the other: reactions rocketed from all sides after François Legault had mentioned risks for the French language and the values dear to Quebecers if the number of immigrants admitted exceeds Quebec’s integration capacities.
“Quebecers are peaceful. They don’t like chicanery. They don’t like extremists. They don’t like violence. So we have to make sure we keep it as it is now, ”said the leader of the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) on Wednesday afternoon. François Legault quickly assured his Twitter followers that he “not [avoir] wanted to associate immigration with violence”, saying “sorry if [ses] remarks were confusing”.
The Prime Minister had in mind not acts of violence committed by religious “extremists” from immigration, but rather by right-wing anti-immigration “extremists” in France and Germany, said his close guard.
Axis of electoral competition
In less than two, the exit of François Legault accentuated the “liberal-authoritarian divide” which now structures the vote of Quebecers.
Indeed, the “cultural opposition around the protection of the environment and the reception and integration of immigrants” has taken over the economic “left-right” divide and the constitutional “yes-no” divide. , according to researchers Éric Bélanger, Jean-François Daoust, Valérie-Anne Mahéo and Richard Nadeau.
“The retreat of the constitutional debate […] gradually led public opinion and political actors in Quebec to turn to the main issues related to the transformations of capitalism, that is to say, on the one hand, the increase in migratory flows and, on the other hand , the acceleration of climate change”, they explain in the book The new Quebec voter (Presses de l’Université de Montréal, 2022).
The “liberal-authoritarian divide”, “is really a divide in values. It’s a left-right opposition of a more cultural nature, and therefore of values,” adds professor in the Department of Political Science at McGill University Éric Bélanger in an interview with The duty.
The CAQ and Québec solidaire (QS) positioned themselves, each at their end, in the liberal-authoritarian axis in 2018. They are still there four years later.
In addition to a liberal-authoritarian divide, the researchers see “clear signs” of a “generational divide” and an “educational divide” within the Quebec electorate. First, less educated Quebecers vote more for the CAQ, while more educated voters are scattered among the other parties. Second, younger Quebecers vote more for QS, while older voters are scattered among the other parties, political scientists found after flipping the results of a large poll conducted the day after the 2018 election. .
“The generational divide and the educational divide go hand in hand with opinions on the two emerging issues: the youngest are the most concerned about the environment and are the most open to cultural diversity. The least educated are the least concerned about the environment and the least open to diversity,” summarizes Professor Éric Bélanger. According to him, “2022 could be an opportunity to see these trends become more serious”.
CAQ, authoritarian
After prohibiting the wearing of religious symbols by police officers, judges, prison guards and teachers (Law on the secularism of the State resulting from Bill 21), introduced a test of democratic values and Quebec values to immigration candidates and strengthened the Charter of the French language (Act respecting the official and common language of Quebec, French, of Bill 96), the CAQ now pleads for the reception of 50,000 immigrants per year ( compared to 35,000 for the PQ, between 60,000 and 80,000 for QS and 70,000 for the PLQ), as well as increased powers in matters of immigration on the part of the federal government. It is about “the survival of French in America”, repeated François Legault this week.
QS, liberal
QS spokespersons, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois and Manon Massé, presented their greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction plan, “Vision 2030”. This is the “most ambitious, rigorous and transparent plan to fight climate change ever presented to the people of Quebec by a political party”, they argued.
Liberal and authoritarian at the same time?
There are voters who split the liberal-authoritarian axis. Francis is living proof of that. The dutymet him in the riding of Brome-Missisquoi this week. It subscribes both to the CAQ’s discourse on immigration and to the QS discourse on the environment. However, he will not vote for one or the other. “The parties are not inclined enough to talk about the environment and the reduction of GHGs, especially the CAQ. I think they are disconnected. And Québec solidaire, because of their vision so much to the left, I am not capable, ”he says on his electric bike on the edge of Stagecoach Road, in Brome. François is considering supporting the Parti Québécois (PQ) on October 3. “I am a separatist by nature,” he argues before pressing on the sides of his electric mount.
Division Policy
This week, François Legault has (willingly or unwillingly) played the game of division politics (“ wedge politics not only by launching the idea that the arrival of more than 50,000 immigrants a year would pose a threat to peace in Quebec, but also by putting back to back non-intellectuals and “intellectuals” – who are the only ones to support the reform of the voting system, according to him —, then the residents of Quebec and Montreal — who look down on the third link project, still according to him.
Why does Legault “cleave” — or, in the language of political strategists, wedgehe — while the CAQ ranks first in terms of voting intentions (40%), far ahead of the Liberal Party of Quebec (18%), QS (15%), the Conservative Party of Quebec (15%) and the QP (10%)? Éric Bélanger suspects the CAQ leader, who took it easy during the first week, of having sought to “show his cards” in order to reaffirm his immigration policy before the Face to face of VAT (September 15) and the Leaders Debate de Radio-Canada (September 22)… and after the “relatively good” start to the campaign of Conservative leader Éric Duhaime. “In any case, in the region of Quebec [la CAQ a senti la] need to react to Mr. Duhaime’s campaign,” says the political scientist, before adding: “We didn’t really know what to expect. »