Although the instruction of non-interference in the Quebec election is the same for all the federal parties—apart from the Bloc Québécois—everyone, in Quebec City as in Ottawa, agrees that it is “inevitable” that members of Justin Trudeau’s troops derogate from it. Because some may not be able to help but respond in more identity debates. And because some of the Quebec parties, in the first place the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) of François Legault, risk provoking their federal counterparts with their promises and their electoral proclamations.
Officially, the watchword is the same everywhere in Ottawa. Federal MPs will let Quebecers decide the results of the October 3 election. Only the Bloc Québécois is already openly campaigning with the Parti Québécois. Chef Yves-François Blanchet will mainly support his counterpart Paul St-Pierre Plamondon during separate events, in order to “cover two areas at the same time”.
It must be said that for the other parties, there is not much to be gained by supporting or publicly opposing one or other of the provincial parties. The outcome of the vote is essentially already sealed, we recognize behind the scenes by citing the polls which predict a large majority for the CAQ. On the other hand, there is more to lose by choosing a camp and thus alienating a part of its federal electorate – which brings together, for each, militants from more than one provincial formation.
The New Democratic Party is also stuck, since helping its natural but sovereigntist ally, Quebec solidaire, would not go to English Canada.
The Conservative Party has its hands full dealing with the turf wars engendered by its leadership race.
That leaves the federal Liberals. Justin Trudeau’s troops promise not to meddle proactively in the Quebec campaign, even though François Legault called on Quebecers last year not to support the “centralizing party”. “We don’t hold grudges,” they say in Ottawa.
But the federal Liberals being less in tune with the political positions of the CAQ leader than the federal Conservatives, the temptation will necessarily be greater for some to break their silence. Especially since the Liberal Party of Quebec is in the midst of an identity crisis, the federal Liberals feel obliged to fill the void left on the Quebec political scene.
Orphan liberals
“Probably there will be a desire for a response,” predicts Liberal MP Alexandra Mendès. “If only, in our opinion, to set the record straight. The federal Liberals in Quebec have agreed to stay away from the debates, but their discipline will depend on the content of these in the coming weeks. “Often, the assertions of provincial politicians, whatever their party, tend to always blame the federal government,” she observes.
“If François Legault tries to portray the federal government as an enemy of Quebec, we will set the record straight,” adds a second Liberal source.
Liberals from the Montreal region also risk speaking out on the sidelines of identity debates, as they did by demonstrating against Bill 96 on the official and common language of Quebec, French, in the spring. “It’s inevitable,” we recognize in the Liberal ranks.
The positions of the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) could also provoke reactions. A third liberal source cites Éric Duhaime’s desire to attack the public funding of the daycare system, “which is part of our DNA as Quebecers”, deplores this person.
The underlying identity issues
The caquistes may affirm that they will first campaign on the themes of inflation and health, rather than on those of the defense of French and Quebec identity, François Legault has also indicated that he would ask again in Ottawa to recover full powers in immigration.
The CAQ would also have been surprised that identity was not one of the themes explicitly provided for in the debate of the electoral leaders, during a preparatory meeting bringing together all the parties and Radio-Canada. Which has his provincial rivals and federal politicians saying it’s only a matter of time before Mr. Legault brings identity issues back to the fore.
If so, many federal Liberals feel it is incumbent upon them to respond.
“All have the feeling of not having a party in Quebec that represents them,” reports a Liberal source. “Concerned citizens feel this void, that there is not really a party that represents them and that can echo their concerns. A sentiment shared behind the scenes by other federal Liberals in recent months.
Canada’s Conservatives, more in tune with the CAQ, do not have the same tension. Especially since the majority of Quebec deputies (who support Jean Charest rather than Pierre Poilievre in the leadership race) do not burn with the desire to help the PCQ of Éric Duhaime, cooled by its electoral theme of freedom to all cost.
“Many are tired of ‘freedom’,” says a conservative source, who says the party has borne the brunt of supporters of “freedom convoys” on social media, on the phone and in constituency offices.
If elected officials from the Trudeau government speak out on the sidelines of the debates in Quebec, the Conservatives could make comments in turn. “Our deputies care more about the future of our party or their own political future than about the future of the Quebec government,” notes our source.
The Liberals will do their best not to jump into the electoral trenches with both feet. But some are already predicting that they will have a hard time chomping at the bit in silence. It’s only a matter of time until they dip their toe in the Quebec countryside.