With pomp and arrogance. Friday morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin formalized from Moscow the annexation within the Russian Federation of the four Ukrainian regions under occupation, Zaporijjia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk, after a series of referendums, condemned by the international community, with Stalinist results. The victory of the “yes”, announced with great fanfare this week, was decided in proportions varying between 87.05% and 99.23%.
However, with this taking possession of an equivalent territory, with Crimea already annexed in 2014, to the area of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia combined, the strongman of the Kremlin seeks without the shadow of a doubt to give a turning point in a war of invasion which does not proceed as he had wished. A risky bet which, far from bringing this war closer to an end, could also make it tip over for the worst. Decryption.
What are these attachments for?
Initially scheduled for November, the annexation “referendums” have been urgently orchestrated in the last few days by the Kremlin, after the numerous losses inflicted on its army by a Ukrainian counter-offensive which has freed several occupied cities.
Through these annexations, Vladimir Putin has therefore just placed these Ukrainian territories under the jurisdiction of Russia, thus changing the story of his war of invasion which from now on, in his eyes, will be able to be told as a war of aggression against Ukraine. and its allies against the territorial integrity of Russia.
This shift of the cursor allows Moscow to justify its partial mobilization of reservists aimed at bailing out military personnel severely weakened by the Ukrainian resistance on the battlefield since last February. Between 48,000 and 53,000 men are said to have lost their lives. It also comes to give more weight to its threats to use nuclear weapons, reaffirmed last week.
“Nuclear deterrence establishes a use of these weapons as a last resort,” said in an interview with the To have to, security and nuclear threat specialist Tom Sauer, professor at the University of Antwerp in Belgium. This last resort means a situation where the highest national interests of a country are at stake, and therefore at least part of the territory of the state which possesses the nuclear weapon is threatened. This annexation is therefore a necessary condition for Putin in order to be able to justify the possible use of nuclear weapons in the future. »
Is the use of nuclear weapons becoming more likely?
Faced with Vladimir Putin, the worst is never certain. However, “even if nuclear weapons were designed to ‘sanctuarize’ national territories, from a political and symbolic point of view, their use would be considered as the violation of a ‘taboo’ and would constitute a dangerous first step towards a form of normalization of the use of these weapons which have so far only been used by the United States against Japan in 1945”, specifies the political scientist Christophe Wasinski of the Free University of Brussels (ULB), neighbor of the headquarters NATO, an international defense organization he knows well. And that puts the head of the Kremlin on a minefield.
“There is a good chance that Putin will not use these nuclear weapons, in particular because by doing so, he will further isolate his country, adds Tom Sauer. More neutral states such as China and India will also oppose their use. »
A harbinger of such a detachment, on Tuesday, Beijing added the voice of its ambassador to the UN Security Council to the chorus of protest from the international community, denouncing the annexation of Ukrainian territories by Moscow, and calling for respect for “the territorial integrity of all countries”.
In addition, last August, kyiv carried out drone attacks against the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, on the Crimean peninsula, under Russian control, without triggering a specific reaction from the Kremlin.
What are these annexations worth and how should the international community react?
In terms of international law, the referendums and annexations legitimized by Moscow on Friday are clear violations of the founding principles of the UN on state sovereignty and the rules of territorial integrity.
“All states have an obligation not to recognize these border changes,” explains international law specialist Vladyslav Lanovoy, a professor at Laval University, on the other end of the line. They cannot assist Russia in its approach, but must also cooperate, by lawful means, to oppose these annexations. This does not necessarily imply a direct entry of Westerners into the conflict, but may be due to the assistance offered to the government victim of a theft of territory to defend its territorial integrity.
“The reaction of the UN will have to be clear,” he adds, recalling that in 2014, the international organization adopted a resolution recognizing that Crimea was indeed part of Ukrainian territory. “It didn’t change anything, admits Mr. Lanovoy, because at the time the international community chose the policy of appeasement vis-à-vis Russia, thus creating a situation of ‘fait accompli’ which we will have to avoid here. Whether [cette communauté] had reacted in 2014 as it has done since February [et le début de la guerre en Ukraine], we probably wouldn’t be talking about this conflict today. »
On Friday, NATO and the G7 countries again condemned these annexations. As for Ukraine, it has promised not to give in to the aggressor. “Nothing changes for Ukraine: we continue to liberate our lands and our people, restoring our territorial integrity,” he said. on Twitterthe Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kouleba, castigating Russian President Vladimir Putin who “is trying to seize territories that he does not even physically control”.
At the same time, kyiv symbolically signed Ukraine’s application for accelerated NATO membership, but also sent a clear message to Russia. “Ukraine will not negotiate with Russia as long as Putin is the president of the Russian Federation. We will negotiate with the new president,” insisted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
With Agence France-Presse