Every Wednesday, our parliamentary correspondent in Ottawa Marie Vastel analyzes a federal political issue to help you better understand it.
Candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) have recruited a record number of new members, excited about the race in which they want to participate. But many longtime Tories feel themselves orphaned by a party that is in the process of reconsidering its identity. In a more polarized race than the previous ones, where the different camps are opposite on the spectrum of the Canadian right, these activists from the center of the conservative chessboard suddenly feel forgotten.
The discomfort is felt by many, behind the scenes, who seem resigned to giving their vote to one of the leaders without much enthusiasm. Half of the Conservative sources consulted did not even know yet which candidate they would support.
Fatigue has something to do with it. The CCP is in its third race in five years. Each of the frontrunners is raising fears about their chances of winning a general election. MP Pierre Poilievre, because of the ideas he defends. Jean Charest, because of skeletons from his past as Premier of Quebec. Patrick Brown, because of allegations of sexual misconduct and ethical lapses that occurred when he led the Ontario Conservatives.
But what makes these conservatives in the center of the CCP feel ignored is also that the offer presented to them is either resolutely of the Progressive Conservative heritage—with Mr. Charest and Mr. Brown—or firmly libertarian and anti-establishment — with Mr. Poilievre.
“Some feel out of place in a federal party where the main topic revolves around a pandemic that is over and the supposed role of the World Economic Forum [FEM] “Explains Mélanie Paradis, ex-strategist of former chef Erin O’Toole and the only source who agreed to openly comment on these doubts about the leader.
His reading is shared by a second conservative, who notes that part of the current membership does not recognize itself in the issues raised by Pierre Poilievre, who seeks to target a new potential electorate for the party. He would reassure and convince his people more by talking about the traditional favorite subjects of conservatives, such as the economy and taxation, adds a third source.
The conservative family is seeking, as in any leadership race, to renew its offer. But she is torn. While Jason Kenney lost the confidence of his troops in Alberta trying to appease the more right wing of his party, in Ontario, Doug Ford has just won a second majority campaigning on the center right.
Pierre Poilievre, for his part, bets on the full right, by becoming even more libertarian than Maxime Bernier before him by advocating not only a smaller role for the state, but also by attacking political institutions. Observers, polls and membership recruitment lead us to believe that he will win his bet.
A possible backlash, marginal
The ideas brandished by Mr. Poilievre, however, make many uncomfortable. Even among the deputies who support it, according to our information.
His promise to fire the Governor of the Bank of Canada, his apology for cryptocurrency as a way to circumvent inflation, his promise to ban his ministers from participating in the WEF raised eyebrows on Twitter well-known conservatives, such as Stephen Harper’s former communications director, Andrew MacDougall.
« Courting People’s Party of Canada voters [de Maxime Bernier] risks alienating most Canadians and a large percentage of voters targeted by the Conservative Party,” wrote as for him Dan Robertson, ex-strategist of Mr. O’Toole.
Other sources, from the Harper era, lament that the party under Mr Poilievre’s vision is “giving in to conspiracy theories” such as that the WEF seeks to control the world.
The rebellious and always on the offensive tone of Mr. Poilievre, which appeals to his supporters, worries. Conservatives fear that he is not a “prime minister” and harms their chances of being elected to government.
The campaigns of Jean Charest and Patrick Brown are counting on these disappointed or put off Conservatives to increase their own support.
However, if all the Conservatives polled this week agree that there is indeed a malaise that has set in, all also agree that its effect will be marginal on the outcome of the race. Some may change their first choice vote to preferential ballot, but they will be rare. Others may abstain from voting. But if the Poilievre campaign has actually recruited, as he suggests, half (or nearly half) of the CCP’s now 600,000 members, the backlash will be drowned out by those endorsements. Even if Jean Charest repeats that he still sees a way to victory.
“My fear is that Pierre Poilievre wins the leadership, that the Liberals lose the next election, and that our party learns all the wrong lessons and continues on this path,” drops one of the conservatives interviewed.
These loyal militants may be chomping at the bit publicly, but their uneasiness reflects the difficult reconciliation between traditional conservatives and new, galvanized militants who will await the next leader.