Each week, our parliamentary correspondent in Ottawa Marie Vastel analyzes a federal political issue to help you better understand it.
François Legault surprised many in Ottawa on Sunday by suddenly seeming to accept one of the federal conditions for health funding. A few weeks earlier, he seemed to open the door to another about-face by suggesting that his government could welcome more immigrants, after having repeated during the election campaign that this would be inconceivable. These are two changes of course that give the Trudeau government hope for a “new era” of collaboration. But which could in fact translate only simple facade adjustments, without the Quebec government giving up its other more contentious demands.
The call for collaboration has been on everyone’s lips, in Ottawa as in Quebec, since the swearing in of François Legault’s new cabinet. The ministers exchanged with their counterparts. The discussions are “encouraging” and “positive”, we insist. The head-to-head between Justin Trudeau and François Legault, in Tunisia, on Sunday, also went very well, they say.
The changes in tone of the Prime Minister of the Caquiste on the two major stumbling blocks between Quebec and Ottawa, namely health and immigration, have thus reinforced this impression of renewal in the relationship. However, although the Legault government no longer publicly hammers all its requests deemed inadmissible by Ottawa, it is ensured behind the scenes that they have not been forgotten. The Coalition avenir Québec simply wishes to put aside the quarrels for the moment, in the hope of extracting progress, step by step.
An easy healthy concession
The government of Justin Trudeau is not wrong, however, to have been “optimistic” following the turn of François Legault, considered “major” in terms of health. While the Quebec Minister Christian Dubé mocked, ten days ago, that his government is “not beholden to the federal government” and that if Ottawa wants to see its data in the field, it has only to consult the ” public dashboard that is available”, Mr. Legault had a completely different speech this week. “We are ready to share this data with the federal government,” he said now quite simply.
Federal strategists did not find this comment trivial. Rather, they saw it as a very first door open to discussion in these laborious negotiations. Ottawa promises more money for the health transfer (without saying how much), but also aims for sectoral agreements on five objectives (which Quebec describes as conditions), and this sharing of data is one of them. “This is our first step in the door frame, which can then allow us to continue the conversation on other priorities”, hopes a federal source.
The Trudeau government is convinced that it has the upper end of the stick in this file. After two years of pandemic and the repercussions felt in hospitals, Quebecers and Canadians have nothing to do with monetary debates and fields of competence, their internal polls tell them.
Notwithstanding, in Quebec, we do not see the sharing of data as the acceptance of a condition of Ottawa. The data was listed anyway and their sharing will be done as is, without the federal government being able to modify anything. As for the other objectives set by the federal government, the government of François Legault still does not want to know anything. Quebec is calling, like the other provinces, for an increase in the unconditional Canada health transfer. And this common front remains, we insist. Certain provinces, more in a hurry to obtain billions of dollars, could however end up giving in, as has been seen in the past.
Immigration complaints
On the immigration side, the door opened by François Legault to welcome a greater number of newcomers was also surprising.
The CAQ leader insisted, during the election campaign, that welcoming more than 50,000 immigrants a year would be “suicidal” for the survival of French in Quebec. Two weeks ago, he now implied that once Quebec manages to get a greater proportion of these 50,000 immigrants to speak French, “we can talk to each other: is it possible to welcome more French-speaking immigrants? »
His former Minister of Immigration, Jean Boulet, had in fact suggested the same thing last May, before changing his mind. This was followed by the election campaign and the promise to keep the reception threshold intact. With the election now behind, Mr. Legault appears to be on board with the idea, while insisting that any rise in immigration levels will be aimed at countering the decline of French. This allows him to modify his speech without stripping it of his nationalism.
However, we are far from the line drawn in the election campaign. And far from the full powers in immigration demanded in Ottawa on all the platforms.
This traditional demand remains, we are assured in Quebec. The federal government will also be called upon to help the Legault government increase Francophone immigration and improve the integration of temporary newcomers. But we also feel that this new desire for collaboration translates into a more step-by-step approach in this area.
Second economic mandate
François Legault did not hide that he hoped to take advantage of his re-election to finally work on an economic legacy for Quebec. The CAQ government wants results above all else. This perhaps explains why, instead of continuing to string together objections to Ottawa, we now say we are ready to achieve results little by little, always with a view to winning end of the day.
However, Justin Trudeau’s government should not kid themselves. François Legault may have softened his tone, in public and in private, but he has not abandoned the demands that put him in conflict with Ottawa. We are therefore still a long way from an all-out agreement in the areas of health, immigration or infrastructure.