Every Wednesday, our parliamentary correspondent in Ottawa Marie Vastel analyzes a federal political issue to help you better understand it.
With six candidates officially in the race for the Conservative leadership, Pierre Poilievre can probably give up his team’s hopes of winning in the first round. The task has just become a little more complicated. But the leader could on the other hand benefit from the profile presented by these aspiring leaders, the composition of the group offering him a good potential for growth over the ballots. This will complicate the task of Jean Charest, who was already facing a tough opponent.
The Conservative Party of Canada on Monday certified the names of the candidates who will appear on the ballots for its September election. The group is evenly divided into two camps: Jean Charest, Patrick Brown and Scott Aitchison belong to the progressive-conservative fringe of the movement, while Pierre Poilievre, Leslyn Lewis and Roman Baber woo the partisans of “freedom” (against the government, against abortion or vaccination).
With its rallies attracting hundreds of supporters, the Poilievre team hinted that its candidate had the wind in its sails so much that he could win more than 50% support in the first round. However, even with only four candidates in the running in 2020, none of them had immediately exceeded this threshold, recalls the ex-strategist Melanie Paradis, who co-led the victorious campaign of Erin O’Toole at the ‘era. And even: Peter MacKay, who had collected 30% in the first round, was then doubled during the counting of the subsequent rounds.
Two years ago, however, Mr MacKay was alone in the Progressive Conservative camp and faced three more center-right candidates. This time, the leader, Pierre Poilievre, will be able to count on the support of supporters of Roman Baber and Leslyn Lewis, who risk registering him for the most part as second or third choice on their preferential ballots. “When you look at the spectrum of candidates, there is room for growth for Mr. Poilievre,” observes Rodolphe Husny, who served as political adviser to Stephen Harper’s government.
Where the situation will be more delicate for Pierre Poilievre is that he will still have to court these second-rate supports. Because all these votes count in a tight race, remembers Melanie Paradis. “It takes away flexibility. You must always keep these possible supports in mind and be careful not to alienate the fringes of the coalition of votes that you are courting among your opponents, ”she explains.
A caution that could seem counter-intuitive in a candidate who prides himself on saying out loud what he thinks and what others dare not say.
Fortunately for him, the popularity of Leslyn Lewis will simplify his task. The candidate from the social fringe of the party garnered the support of 60,000 members before being eliminated in 2020. And although the anti-abortion organization Campaign Life Coalition will advise its members not to list any other candidate on their mail-in ballot, the Right Now group will do it. And Mr. Poilievre will most likely appear ahead of Jean Charest or Patrick Brown.
Another challenge for Charest
Those tens of thousands of votes from the religious right could make Pierre Poilievre win, as they did for Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole in 2017 and 2020. “That’s what makes it statistically very difficult for others candidates”, explains ex-strategist Yan Plante.
The Charest camp was also betting on the debates, which will get under way this week, to allow the former premier of Quebec to shine. But with a six-man race, the ice time will be limited, as will the opportunities to go after his main rival, Pierre Poilievre, directly. “It’s a disadvantage for him, observes Yan Plante. Debates risk becoming infomercials. It doesn’t lead to deep rallies that put the point guard on the defensive. »
The aspiring leaders will face off Thursday in Ottawa, May 11 in Edmonton, May 25 in Laval, then May 30 in front of a right-wing media group headed by True North.
This will be an opportunity to see in which camps each hopes to win support. Pierre Poilievre, who is leading the polls and who collected the most donations in the first quarter of 2022, will undoubtedly be the target of the majority of his opponents. But the candidates’ restraint in the face of certain others will also speak volumes about their hopes for growth.
In this chapter, the sweet eyes have already begun. Pierre Poilievre has more than once welcomed the candidacy of Mme Lewis. She and Patrick Brown lamented that two pro-life candidates failed to qualify for the final list of aspiring leaders.
And it is these same strategies that explain the timidity of the four main candidates to comment on the draft decision of the Supreme Court of the United States on Tuesday. Roe v. wade. Only Jean Charest publicly proclaimed himself pro-choice on Twitterat the end of the day, arguing that a government under his leadership would not support bills on the issue, but would allow its deputies to introduce them.
Pierre Poilievre’s position is similar, but was only communicated by his team following insistent requests. Patrick Brown has only made his position known in a written statement to the media who have spoken to him, saying that abortions should be “safe, legal, but [son] rare reviews. Leslyn Lewis — who opposes abortion — refrained from commenting “as this is not a final decision.”
Reactions which suggest that in addition to Jean Charest, the candidates who have a chance of winning see the Conservatives favorable to Mme Lewis their best chance of getting there. The next few weeks and months will reveal whether the various campaign teams will adjust to the conservative clientele they are courting.