By revealing that India would have coordinated the assassination of a Sikh leader on Canadian soil, Justin Trudeau knowingly dropped a huge diplomatic bomb. The scope of the repercussions of this political explosion, however, is only just beginning to be felt, both internationally and in Canada.
It must be said that this admission of extreme foreign interference was somewhat hasty, with Justin Trudeau’s office having preferred this time to reveal the incident before the media, which was preparing to do so, did not take charge. Rather than being criticized once again for erring on the side of confidentiality, which his government abused in the name of national security in this matter, the Prime Minister has finally chosen the avenue of transparency.
After months of silence in response to revelations of foreign interference by the Chinese regime, it would be inconsistent to now criticize it for excessive honesty. The developments of the last ten days, however, lead us to wonder whether, before changing strategy and revealing everything, Mr. Trudeau really measured the full consequences of his probity.
The diplomatic escalation with the Indian government of Narendra Modi was predictable. However, the Canadian government still seems hesitant to retaliate, having reduced its workforce in New Delhi while India suspended the processing of tens of thousands of Canadian visas.
In addition to this bilateral standoff, in Canada the revelations surrounding the assassination of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar have exacerbated latent tensions between the Sikh and Hindu communities. India’s diplomatic missions were the scene of protests on Monday, with hundreds of Sikhs there expressing concern over extraterritorial repression by Prime Minister Modi’s Hindu nationalist government. Hindu nationals claim to be victims of harassment from members of the Sikh community.
Liberal ministers and deputies appealed for calm. Elected officials confided that they were worried about the outcry raised by their constituents from these communities. Not only do these liberals now fear paying the costs of their boss’s confession to electorates so carefully courted, but, above all, the climate recreated here between these diasporas risks seriously degenerating.
Fears of political reprisals, after years of clientelism, are not only in the liberal camp. It is not insignificant that the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, who took the intelligence agencies at their word in the matter of Beijing’s interference, is now demanding to see the “credible allegations” brandished by Justin Trudeau in the case of ‘India. Never mind that NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, who was given a confidential briefing, confirmed what the Prime Minister had said. The Conservatives also avoided an emergency debate on the issue, apart from the intervention of a single MP, former leader Andrew Scheer.
Internationally, the Trudeau government’s accusations against New Delhi have left it alone.
The liberals may well deny having requested, then having been refused, the support of their allies to confront India, such support would obviously not have been refused. But they didn’t come. The Americans confirmed having provided part of the intelligence evidence held by Canada, but neither Washington, nor Australia, nor Great Britain, nor France have publicly condemned New Delhi.
Canada finds itself once again isolated, while its more powerful partners prioritize their geopolitical interests against China. India is a new strategic ally that no one can ignore.
Yet this is what Canadian governments have done for years. That of the conservative Stephen Harper – who today associates with Narendra Modi within the alliance of right-wing parties, the International Democratic Union, which he chairs – just like that of Justin Trudeau. Economic interests were obviously explored, but India’s allegations of foreign interference against Sikh separatists were ignored, as were New Delhi’s complaints about the extremism of some of them.
“In the coming years, Canada will increasingly pay the price if it does not abandon its dilettante approach to foreign policy,” wrote in the Globe and Mail Thomas Juneau, associate professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa, three years ago. The current crisis with India, which has just exploded and which Canada is struggling to manage, is the perfect example, he said today.
It is encouraging that the Indian government is finally ready to cooperate in the investigation into the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Justin Trudeau’s new turn towards transparency in matters of interference should, however, have been accompanied, upstream, by a little more foresight.