“It is an overbidding environment in the context of a particularly delicate negotiation”, underlined Tuesday January 25 on franceinfo Jean de Gliniasty, director of research at the Institute of international and strategic relations (Iris), while Russia announced Tuesday afternoon the launch of new military maneuvers, in southern Ukraine, in particular in the region of Crimea annexed in 2014 by the Russians. For their part, the United States insisted on the heavy sanctions that Russia, and even Vladimir Putin himself, would suffer in the event of an invasion of Ukraine.
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For the diplomat and former French ambassador to Russia from January 2009 to November 2013, there are “a risk of progressive escalation”, even if Vladimir Putin assured not to have “the intention to invade Ukraine”. The former ambassador also fears that, in this crisis, Europe “don’t be offside”.
franceinfo: Is this rise in tension on both sides the right strategy?
Jean de Gliniasty: I do not know. What is certain is that this is an overbidding environment in the context of a particularly delicate negotiation. The Russians launched this concentration of soldiers when they presented the treaty; the Americans are mobilizing part of the NATO troops, because what is at stake is the security of Europe. We have to show that we are serious in this negotiation.
Is there a risk of skidding?
The game of arm wrestling will end as soon as there are some first results, even on a temporary basis, of the negotiation which opens. As soon as there are some results of these talks, I imagine that the tension will drop. On the risk of escalation, it should not be underestimated. When you accumulate 100,000 men and material and when, on the other hand, you also fall into a kind of psychosis, justified or not, there can be incidents. We know very well that there are far-right groups in Ukraine who believe that to recover the territorial integrity of Ukraine, a war is necessary. We also know very well that there are far-right groups, present in the Duma, who believe that war may be inevitable and that Putin, in 2014, did not finish the job.
Are you worried ?
We can’t be totally calm insofar as, when we accumulate troops and materials, we are tempted to use them. There is therefore an undeniable risk of escalation. In any case, in Russian psychology, Putin has repeatedly said that he has no intention of invading Ukraine. It wouldn’t be a full-scale invasion. We would rather be in a kind of gradual escalation. But basically, there was a proposal for a Russian treaty. Before the end of the week, there will be written responses from Russia. And there will be a real negotiation in a context of tension. This negotiation under pressure will last a long time because it is not easy. And we can hope that it will result in a new security status for Europe.
Is Europe offside or can it play a negotiating role?
I fear that Europe is offside. When Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron tried to mobilize Europeans to start a dialogue with Putin after the Biden-Putin summit last June in Geneva, we realized that in fact they were dealing with Europe, the Ukraine and security in Europe. The French President and the German Chancellor said that Europe absolutely had to take the initiative. And they have come up against a wall because almost half of the Member States consider that security in Europe and European geopolitics are the responsibility of NATO and the United States.