an end of the year between war, economic recession and political paralysis

The war between Israel and Hamas is plunging Lebanon back into recession, according to a World Bank report. Tensions in the south of the country between Hezbollah and the state have hampered tourism for the end-of-year holidays.

Very gloomy atmosphere in Lebanon at the end of 2023. Before the October 7 attack by Hamas against Israel, the World Bank forecast slight economic growth for this year, +0.2%. A first since the economic and financial collapse of 2018. The country then suspended the repayment of its debt, leading to a fall of more than 90% in the value of its currency.

The Lebanese authorities hoped to earn foreign currency with the arrival of hundreds of thousands of Lebanese from the diaspora, who came to spend the end-of-year holidays in the country. But the war in Gaza and its violent metastases to the Lebanese-Israeli border have shattered these predictions. More than 50% of travel reservations in Lebanon have been canceled for the winter holidays, according to World Bank estimates.

The agricultural sector in South Lebanon, which represents 80% of the portion of the national GDP generated in this region, has suffered significant losses, notes for its part the United Nations Development Program (the UNDP). Bombings took place during a key harvest season, particularly olives. Nearly a hundred villages were subject to cross-border attacks by Israeli forces.

A resigned government with limited powers

The Land of the Cedars feels weightless, with paralyzed political life. Lebanon still does not have a president since the departure of Michel Aoun from Baabda Palace a year ago. Since then, the presidency of the Republic, reserved for a Maronite Christian, has been vacant. Parliament has repeatedly failed to find a successor. Despite international pressure to unblock the election, there is no consensus on any name.

The country is led by the resigned government with limited powers of billionaire Najib Mikati who handles current affairs. As for the head of the army, General Joseph Aoun, whose mandate ends next January, it has just been extended for another year by Parliament. In short, a political scene that has become a shadow theater, above ground, a thousand miles from the concerns of the Lebanese overwhelmed by a mountain of difficulties to make ends meet.