Rémi Lefèbvre, political scientist, professor of political science at the University of Lille 2 and researcher at the Center for Administrative, Political and Social Studies and Research (Ceraps), estimated Friday, December 17 on franceinfo that Christiane Taubira’s statement is “an ambiguous message” Who “wastes a little more time on the left” while we are in “a race against time”. François Hollande’s former Minister of Justice “considering being a presidential candidate”. In a video posted on her Facebook page, she gives an appointment for January 15 and says she does not want to be another candidate.
What matters is you. ChT pic.twitter.com/ZSxVLpeaim
– Christiane Taubira (@ChTaubira) December 17, 2021
franceinfo: What should we understand from this statement?
Remi Lefèbvre: It is a rather ambiguous message. Christiane Taubira takes a step forward at the same time. She affirms a desire to be a candidate, but in fact, she is waiting for the conditions to be right for her to really be. It is a kind of pre-announcement which aims in fact to settle the situation, to appear as a recourse and therefore to precipitate things to the left or in any case, to crystallize them in its favor. It is one more step in a kind of current confusion on the left. It is a prospect, but for the moment, concretely, the candidacy of Madame Taubira is conditioned on the rallies which could come from the Socialist Party, of Arnaud Montebourg. This is all extremely speculative. And besides, it seems to me that she did not speak of primary so she would not be a candidate for a primary. She wants to run as a candidate for the rally on the left. All this, obviously wastes a little more time on the left because in concrete terms, the holidays will pass, the start of January will arrive and the situation will not be unblocked on the left. It is a race against time that they have started on the left. We can see that the other candidates are in the campaign and on the left, there is a form of confusion which is always present and which, obviously, does not promote the legibility of the offer on the left.
Has Christiane Taubira given a chance to a primary on the left?
If the polls are to be believed, there is a unitary aspiration which is extremely strong in public opinion on the left. Does this unitary aspiration go through the desire to participate in a primary? We can see that in any case, today, there is a much more problem with the partisan system, with the partisan offer. It should still be remembered that the primaries mobilized on the left 3 million sympathizers of the PS and beyond in 2011, and even 2 million sympathizers five years ago in January 2017. The open primaries are potentially very mobilizing on the left. The question is to know which primary, how it will be organized, if it will be online and will there be a common base of candidates. There are many, many, more uncertainties about this primary, which is also extremely hypothetical.
Do you believe in the “Taubira effect”?
I am quite skeptical, I must say. Christiane Taubira is an iconic figure, a kind of moral conscience that hovers a little above the political game. But in fact, we do not know what Christiane Taubira really thinks of lots of questions. He is someone who is all the more popular in a part of the left-wing electorate for not taking a position. In fact, it is not really positioned in relation to the mandate of François Hollande, even if it was quite close to the rebels. She was not in direct opposition to François Hollande. It actually embodies a fairly consensual moral left, but concretely, a primary, that means specific proposals, positioning itself in relation to certain numbers of issues. And today, there are plenty of divisive and complicated issues on the left, Europe, secularism, globalization, relocation, etc. We are faced with a kind of bubble which is above political life, a somewhat spectral presence, but which, in my opinion, does not nevertheless clarify the situation on the left. It is still quite low in the polls today in terms of vote intention. Be careful not to overestimate this phenomenon, which is favored by a small part of the left quite politicized and it does not necessarily have an influence in the electorate of the left which is very powerful.