No obligation. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne will not seek the confidence of parliamentarians on Wednesday during her general policy statement to the Assembly and the Senate.
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Thus, when Raymond Barre, Prime Minister of Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, refused, in 1976, in his own words, a trust granted “in slices“, is that he suffered the pounding of Jacques Chirac. When the three Socialist Prime Ministers of François Mitterrand – who succeeded each other from 1988 -, in turn, refused to ask for confidence, it was also the observation that , without the centrists, they do not have an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
For Elisabeth Borne, the absence of a vote at the end of the general policy speech is not really a choice, but a necessity to avoid her being overthrown a few weeks after her appointment. Just the term “vote of confidence” shows the authority that could have resulted from it for Elisabeth Borne, with, in addition, a message of respect addressed to the deputies whose vote is sought.
Conversely, withdrawing from it, as she was to do after much hesitation, shows that she first and foremost derives her power from the President of the Republic, and that her weight as leader of the majority and of the government is limited. Hence, Monday, July 4, this singular reshuffle, where ministers themselves confirmed their maintenance in government, like Bruno Le Maire. Politics is always a balance of power.
This is, in fact, a serious risk. In private, the Prime Minister observes that she could not be asked to jump off the cliff, in the mode “you’re not good“. Because the calculation is quickly made: the government has 20 deputies, 21 with the Prime Minister. These are ministers of the first government of Elisabeth Borne, who presented themselves in the legislative elections and who were renewed in the new government and newcomers who have made their entry onto the ministerial scene, and these are all voices that Elisabeth Borne could have missed.
Because these 21 no longer sit in the Assembly. And their substitutes do not yet have the right to replace them. The electoral code provides that substitutes can only take the place of a deputy minister within a period of one month.
With the relative majority coming out of the ballot box, Elisabeth Borne could have lacked more than fifty votes to obtain the confidence of an absolute majority. It would have been in the hands of the oppositions.
Does that mean that LR and RN should have abstained? Yes, the vote is counted according to the votes cast. Since the Nupes has already indicated that it will not vote for confidence, this means Conversely that the Prime Minister should have counted on the abstention of LR and RN. The next step is now the motion of censure which will be tabled by France Insoumise. On this point, Elisabeth Borne is reassured: as the RN will not vote for this motion, it has no chance of being adopted. The Socialists, for their part, are reluctant to join the Insoumis. Finally, despite the absence of a vote of confidence, this motion of censure could offer Wednesday a first political victory to the Prime Minister, thanks to her rejection and the division of Nupes.