A rare analyst to have glimpsed Hillary Clinton’s defeats against Barack Obama and Donald Trump, Marie-Christine Bonzom has covered seven presidential elections and five presidencies. At the invitation of Dutyshe occasionally puts her expert eye on the 2024 presidential campaign.
In a month, the Americans will elect the new tenant of the White House. As the United States experiences unprecedented demographic upheaval, who are Americans and American voters?
The latest portrait of the United States population dates back to the 2020 census, with the next one expected in 2030.
As in the United Kingdom and more so than in Canada, but unlike their French or German colleagues, demographers at the US Census Bureau are authorized to produce and publish statistics that classify the country’s population by ethnicity or “race”. This categorization was for a long time the only one used by the Census Bureau, from the first census, in 1790.
In any presidential campaign, Census Bureau statistics are used by parties and candidates for the purposes of electoral strategy (political positioning, fundraising, field trips, mobilization at the polls).
For their part, Americans reject this ethnic categorization and respond “American” or “Other” to the Census Bureau questionnaire, while some of their compatriots adhere to it so much that they readily think of and describe themselves as belonging to one of these categories. During Donald Trump’s election rallies, black and Hispanic supporters held up signs “ Blacks for Trump ” Or ” Latinos for Trump “. When her Democratic rival launched her campaign, separate Zoom fundraisers brought together “ Black Women for Kamala Harris » and “ White Dudes for Kamala Harris “.
Moreover, the Census Bureau does not only count citizens of the United States, but all “residents”, including illegal immigrants, at least by computer modeling. Indeed, Article 1 of the Constitution, which provides for a census for the purposes of the distribution of seats in the House for each State, stipulates that the count must include “the entire number of persons” living in the federation, except tourists and other individuals visiting the United States temporarily.
In any case, the census figures paint a relatively precise portrait of the American people, a people in profound change, more multi-ethnic and multicultural than ever.
A new minority called the majority
Today numbering 342 million, the inhabitants of the United States will be 383 million by 2054, when, and for the first time in the history of the country, no ethnic group will be in the majority.
This is because in 2045, white people of European origin will represent less than 50% of the population (49.8% exactly). In 1980, so-called non-Hispanic whites, among whom the Census Bureau also counts residents from the Middle East and North Africa, represented 80% of the population.
In the electorate, the share of Whites has already decreased by 9 points between 2000 and 2018 (from 76% to 67%). Locally, drops of more than 10 points are observed in Nevada and Arizona, two key states. In 2016, 57% of white voters voted for Donald Trump and 37% for Hillary Clinton. In 2020, 58% chose Trump, 41% Joe Biden.
African-Americans, that is, descendants of slaves from Africa, plus immigrants from the Caribbean and sub-Saharan Africa, represent 13% of the population. A proportion which, according to projections, will not change in the next 20 years. In 2016, 89% voted for Clinton, 8% for Trump. In 2020, 87% for Biden and 12% for Trump.
African-Americans have long been overtaken by Latinos or Hispanics, both in the population and in the electorate. As of 2020, African Americans are no longer the largest minority in the electorate. They still account for 12% of the electorate, compared to 13% for Hispanics, who have recorded a jump of 5 points just since 2012.
Latinos, whether native Americans or immigrants, number 62 million, or 19% of the population. In 2045, they will make up a quarter of them. Already, Latinos constitute the largest minority in the country, demographically and politically. For a long time, they no longer lived only concentrated in southern and western states like Nevada and Arizona. In the key state par excellence that is Pennsylvania, Reading, birthplace of the writer John Updike, the artist Keith Haring and the singer Taylor Swift, is made up mainly of Latinos (67%).
Among indigenous populations, the Census Bureau counts approximately 3.7 million Native Americans and Alaskans as well as 690,000 Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders (Guam, Samoa, Northern Marianas). In 2016, 56% of natives opted for Clinton, 36% for Trump. In 2020, 55% for Biden and 41% for Trump.
Demographic transformation
In recent decades, the United States has experienced a large influx of populations from regions other than Latin America.
Asians are the fastest growing demographic group: +72% between 2000 and 2015. Asian immigrants in the United States are mainly from China, India, the Philippines, Vietnam and Pakistan . Today, there are 20 million, or 7% of the population and 4% of the electorate.
The voting behavior of Asian Americans is marked by three characteristics: the highest abstention of all ethnic categories in the census, the strongest propensity to define themselves as independent of the two major parties and, since 1996, a reversal of their preference partisan. Long reliable supporters of the Republican Party (around 55%), they now vote more than 60% for the Democratic Party. In 2016, only 27% of Asians voted for Trump. Four years later, the Republican still obtained 34% of their votes.
Since 2000, the decennial census has made it possible to choose more than one “race” to describe oneself. More and more residents retain this “multiracial” category. With 9 million people in 2010, this group reached 34 million in 2020.
How do Americans perceive the demographic transformation of their country? According to a study conducted by the Pew center, 64% believe that diversity has a positive impact on their society. 58% even think that the country’s increased diversity makes it “a better place to live”. Only 7% of Americans think diversity makes their country “less livable.” However, 47% consider that diversity “makes it more difficult to solve the country’s problems”.
Furthermore, 61% of Americans think that the reduction in the share of non-Hispanic whites in the population is “neither good nor bad for American society in general”, while 22% consider this phenomenon “bad or very bad » and 15% “good or very good” for the country.
The same proportion of Democratic and Republican voters (around 61%) believe that the decline in the white population is “neither good nor bad for American society.” But among Republicans and independent voters who lean Republican, 34% are unhappy with the decline in the white population, compared with 13% among Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents.
However, this study on Americans’ reactions to the demographic upheaval in their country dates back to 2021. It therefore does not include their reactions to the historic migration crisis that developed during the four years of the Biden-Harris administration.