Donald Trump’s hold on the Republican sphere and machine is multifaceted and sprawling. Hold over the majority of its voters, as confirmed by the primaries held in 15 states on the occasion of Super Tuesday – followed by the announcement of Nikki Haley, Wednesday morning, to finally withdraw from the race for inauguration.
Control over the party itself, while two of its men are about to get their hands on the leadership of the Republican National Committee, whose authorities, let us remember, consider that the attack of January 6, 2021 on the Capitol constitutes “legitimate political speech”. Control over both chambers of Congress: in the House of Representatives, where a handful of MAGA elected officials manage to impose their law through a strategy of nuisance; in the Senate, where the Trumpist minority, soon to be rid of the old Republican leader Mitch McConnell, in frail health, intends to take its turn.
Hold, finally, by marriage of ideological convenience, over the conservative majority of the Supreme Court, which has just made itself doubly useful to Trump: first, by invalidating last week the decision of Colorado to disqualify him from the primary of the ‘State ; secondly, and above all, by delaying ruling on the question of his “presidential immunity”, which happens to block the opening of the trials launched against him for attempting to modify the results of the 2020 election in his favor.
Americans were on Tuesday, to the day, eight months before the presidential election on November 5, against a backdrop of national polls which place Trump and Biden neck and neck nationally, or Trump slightly in the lead. Between a Trump with a delusional mind and a Biden who fools no one by trying to pretend that his old age does not slow him down, the rematch imposed on weary voters does not present the signs of a healthy democracy.
Tuesday’s Democratic primaries also having crowned candidate Biden, the only one in the running, by margins no less sensational than those obtained by Trump, the apparent clarity of the results is misleading. This “Super Tuesday” basically raises as many questions as it provides answers. It again foreshadows an extremely close presidential election result.
Mr. Trump’s populist simplism clearly works: his disciples revere him with victimhood and revenge affinities. His appalling anti-migrant remarks are a battle cry to him. He scores points against Biden on the always thorny issue of inflation. A certain collective amnesia makes us forget the chaos of his presidency and means that a fringe of independent voters who supported Biden in 2000 are now willing to change sides. Financially, he may soon be able to count on Elon Musk’s billions for campaigning.
The big question remains who will vote for next November 5, if at all they will vote, the approximately 30% of voters (independents and more moderate Republicans in cities and suburbs) having supported Mme Haley — who did not explicitly side with Mr. Trump on Wednesday morning, when he “suspended” his campaign. Small Vermont, the only state where she won on Tuesday, is a symptom of the ex-president’s vulnerabilities on a national scale.
On the Democratic side, Mr. Biden’s age (81) is becoming the main issue for a certain number of Americans, including among Democrats, despite the fact that his opponent, otherwise crucial data, is an unstable man facing 91 charges. And despite the fact that the American economy is after all getting back on its feet and that meritorious social and environmental policies have also been defended under this presidency.
However, there are undeniable questions about the ability of the Democratic machine to bring together the broad coalition that allowed Mr. Biden to win in 2020, particularly among the young people of the progressive wing of the party. A challenge highlighted by the scale of the “uncommitted” vote (uncommitted) recorded in several states, including Michigan and Minnesota, as a protest against the White House’s blind support for Israel. If a fraction of the voters who form the Democratic coalition shun the November 5 vote, vote for a third party candidate or even give in to Republican sirens, and this desertion could change the outcome in the states where the presidential election will be played out in a close call. of pocket.
It is in this complicated and divisive context that Mr. Biden, with whom the Democrats stand in solidarity not without perplexity, will deliver his last speech on the State of the Union to Congress on Thursday evening before the presidential election. An exercise where he will inevitably brandish the Trumpist threat, setting out the themes of his electoral campaign, but in the face of which the Americans, listening to him, risk paying less attention to the words than to the lack of confidence of the person who will say them.