Primaries and caucuses
It takes months to officially nominate the Democratic and Republican candidates for the presidential election. In each state and for each party, popular consultations take place – a ballot (primary) or a more local process, in which activists can debate the candidates (caucus). The rules differ from state to state, but the goal is the same: award delegates to either aspiring candidate based on results. These delegates are then called to officially express their support for their candidate during a national convention, in July for the Republicans and in August for the Democrats.
Super Tuesday
The election season always kicks off with Iowa, followed by certain states specifically designated by the parties. The first Tuesday that any state can hold its primaries is Super Tuesday. “By the time Super Tuesday ends, we usually have a good idea of who the candidates are,” says Barbara Norrander, professor emeritus at the University of Arizona. Especially since contenders withdraw throughout the nomination race. States therefore prefer to hold their primaries or caucuses as soon as possible, hoping to have a greater influence on the final choice.
Who votes?
Generally, participants in primaries and caucuses are particularly militant. They must be members of the party in good standing or not, depending on the state. This year, 15 states will hold their primaries on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia. A caucus will take place in the territory of American Samoa. The number of states that vote on a Super Tuesday varies. In 2008, there were 24 of them who voted at the same time, to designate some 40% of the party delegates.
Results
The number of delegates varies depending on the size of a state and its importance to the party. California and Texas, the most populous states, hold Republican and Democratic primaries on March 5. In all, approximately 36% of each party’s total delegates will be decided on Super Tuesday. There are several ways to decide the result of the primary or caucus, depending on the state: a number of delegates can be allocated to each aspiring candidate according to the percentage received or a single name can garner all the support in the event of a majority, according to a “winner takes all” formula. To become a candidate, a person must obtain the support of 50% + 1 of the delegates.
Suspense
This year, the suspense is not very great, neither among the Democrats, where Joe Biden leads, nor among the Republicans, where Donald Trump is in the lead. But the primaries can still be indicative of certain trends. “What I’m going to look at are things like turnout, but also any expressions of dissatisfaction with the options available,” says Rebecca Eissler, associate professor of political science at State University. San Francisco. In Nevada, for example, where Trump was not in the running, participants preferred the “none of the above” option to Nikki Haley.