America is back…for good?

(Ottawa) June 2021. United States President Joe Biden attends his first G7 summit as leader of the world’s leading power.

The summit is being held in Carbis Bay, United Kingdom, six months after the assault on the Capitol led by supporters of Donald Trump who firmly believed the lie that he had won the presidential election.

At the start of the meeting, which brought together the leaders of the United States, Canada, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy and Japan, the new president declared in a solemn tone: “America is back. »

Straight away, French President Emmanuel Macron asked him: “Mr. President, for how long? »

Joe Biden told this anecdote on September 28 during a speech in Tempe, Arizona, during which he paid a vibrant tribute to former Republican senator John McCain, unsuccessful candidate in the 2008 presidential election, won by Democrat Barack Obama.

This speech also aimed to highlight the dangers which, according to Joe Biden, await democratic institutions in the United States. “I came to honor the McCain Institute and Library because they are home to a proud Republican who put his country first. Our commitment must not be less, because democracy must unite all Americans, regardless of their political affiliation,” the president argued.

Like the French president almost three years ago, more and more Canadians are today wondering if America is back for good or if we must consider another scenario as we approach. of the presidential election.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, is one of those who believe that this scenario should not be ruled out. In an interview given to The Press in June, she said Canada has an obligation to prepare for a possible return of Donald Trump to the White House.

How do we prepare for the return to power of a man as unpredictable and untimely as Donald Trump, who came within a whisker of tearing up the North American Free Trade Agreement – ​​an economic bloc binding Canada, the United States and Mexico – to mark the first 100 days of his presidency?

A return… possible

Is a victory for someone who faces multiple charges in four separate criminal cases really a plausible scenario?

“A victory for Donald Trump? Yes, it’s possible,” says Goldy Hyder, president and CEO of the Business Council of Canada, who closely follows Canada’s relations with its main allies.

Like others, he notes that the polls are far from encouraging for the current president, who will be 81 on November 20. Among other things, Joe Biden has the worst approval rating for an outgoing president since Jimmy Carter, who bit the dust to Republican Ronald Reagan in 1980 after just one term.

Mr. Hyder points out that elections will take place in 2024 in the United States, Mexico and perhaps also in Canada, if the Trudeau government and the New Democratic Party end the agreement which in principle ensures the survival of the minority Liberals in the Commons until June 2025.

Result: the renewal of the new free trade agreement concluded between Ottawa, Washington and Mexico during the tumultuous reign of Donald Trump risks being postponed at the last minute. Now known as CUSMA (Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement), this agreement must be renewed starting in 2026.

“Our concern is exactly the mistake we made last time. We had to struggle. We panicked. Fortunately, we managed to save the day by setting up a sort of Team Canada which included the federal government, the opposition parties, the premiers of the provinces, business people and the unions. We built a Canadian consensus that recognized that the existential threat to Canada is the quality of our relations with the United States. We know well that the international perception of Canada is shaped by the relationship we have with the United States. »

If it is perceived in the capitals of Canada’s main allies that ties between the two countries are weakened, Canada will inevitably pay an economic, diplomatic and political price, according to him.

“We must therefore do everything we can to remain the best ally of the United States. This means that we must be a reliable ally on several fronts,” he adds.

Links to care for

For several years, Canada has been seen in the American Congress as a “ freeloader » (parasite) which does the bare minimum in terms of defense. These criticisms, which were amplified during the reign of Donald Trump, were also formulated in a more diplomatic tone by the administration of Joe Biden.

During the Democratic president’s first official visit to Ottawa in March, this issue was addressed head on. The United States Ambassador to Canada, David Cohen, acted as the president’s spokesperson by inviting the Trudeau government to do more to ensure the defense of the continent and democracies threatened by authoritarian regimes. He strongly suggested increasing military spending to eventually meet the 2% of GDP criterion established by NATO.

In 2023, Canada plans to spend $36.7 billion on defense, the equivalent of 1.29% of its GDP.

“We should sell the Trans Mountain pipeline and use the profits to invest in our defense and security if necessary to reassure the Americans,” said former Canadian ambassador to Washington Gary Doer, while he participated at the webinar organized by the Canadian Global Affairs Institute in early September.

Just months after President Biden’s visit, the Trudeau government announced cuts of nearly $1 billion to the Department of Defense budget. It is therefore not surprising, according to many observers, that the United States has for some time chosen to exclude Canada when it decides to create new alliances. This was the case during the creation of a new tripartite military alliance AUKUS bringing together the United States, Australia and Great Britain.

This was also the case when the White House issued a press release strongly condemning the Hamas terrorist attacks against Israel in the name of the Quint – which brings together five of the seven G7 countries, namely the United States, France, Germany, Great Britain and Italy, but not Canada or Japan.

Former United States Ambassador to Canada Bruce Heyman also believes that Canada has been able to shine on the international scene over the decades – Canada is part of the G7, NATO and other international organizations – because of privileged relations that it has been able to maintain with its southern neighbor.

Donald Trump’s return to power would be an “absolute disaster” for Canada, he argued in a recent interview with Toronto Star. He also believes that Americans and Canadians are not sufficiently aware of the risk it represents. “They are not fully aware of the dangers that Donald Trump poses to our democracy, our alliances, our friendships… We must not underestimate them at this time,” said Mr. Heyman, who was appointed ambassador to Ottawa by Barack Obama and served from 2014 to 2017.