Ally of Russia | Belarus’ sovereignty also in danger

(Paris) As Russia continues its invasion of Ukraine, Belarus seems to risk gradually losing its sovereignty to its powerful neighbor, due to the weakening of its President Alexander Lukashenko vis-à-vis Vladimir Putin .

The Belarusian head of state authorized the presence on his territory of Russian troops a few weeks before they invaded Ukraine: some 30,000 soldiers from Moscow, who were officially taking part in exercises, thus found themselves at 200 kilometers from the Ukrainian capital Kiev.

At the head for nearly 30 years of a country which he rules with an iron fist, Alexander Lukashenko has also decided to hold a constitutional referendum on Sunday, described as illegitimate by the opposition and considered as a attempt to further prolong his stay in power.

Amendments to the Basic Law proposed by the regime prove particularly problematic for national sovereignty: they include a modification of Belarus’ post-Soviet neutrality status, which would allow the country to permanently host Russian nuclear weapons and forces.

This initiative comes in an already stifling political climate in the country. The opposition has denounced massive fraud in the August 2020 elections that allowed Lukashenko to keep the reins of Belarus, despite weeks of popular protests.

More than 1,000 protesters are still languishing in prison, according to the opposition. Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa who, according to the West, had won these elections, now lives in exile.

At the height of the post-election turmoil, however, the Kremlin chose to support Lukashenko, leaving him “dependent” on Vladimir Putin to stay in power, observes Olga Dryndova, of the University’s Research Center for East European Studies. from Bremen (Germany).

The annexation of Belarus is not Moscow’s preferred option because it “would provoke discontent and resistance from the population”, she explains. But with Russian tanks in the country, if Lukashenko remains “the face of the regime, the real power is elsewhere”, continues Mr.^me Dryndova.

“Vassal” of Russia

Belarusians “deserve better” than to become “vassals” of Russia, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said on Friday after a meeting with Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya in Paris.

“The complicity of the regime of Alexander Lukashenko in the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, in total disregard of international law and the agreements signed, marks a new and very serious step in the process of submission of Mr. Lukashenko to Russia,” he said.

NATO will have to assess “the consequences” of the referendum wanted by Minsk, further estimated Mr. Le Drian. Belarus shares borders with Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, as well as with Poland and Russia.

In an interview with AFP this week, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya said Lukashenko was ready to sacrifice the country’s sovereignty because he was “grateful” for the Kremlin’s support in the aftermath of the 2020 election.

“We want to be friends with our neighbors but we don’t want to be an appendix to another country,” she also said during her visit to Paris.

Mr Lukashenko, once accused by the United States of leading Europe’s last dictatorship, has long projected a maverick image, often appearing in uniform and peppering his comments with down-to-earth and sometimes vulgar expressions.

As tensions rose before the Russian invasion, he said, “If necessary, those of us who have stripes on our uniforms will be the first to defend the fatherland.”

But this verve masks a great weakness, the presence of Russian troops representing a threat to its own power. “He can also think that one day, when the Kremlin no longer needs him, he can get rid of him,” Svetlana Tikhanovskaya told AFP.

According to M^me Dryndova, it is likely that the Belarusian authorities did not initially imagine that Russian soldiers would stay so long and use the country as a launching pad against Ukraine.

“I don’t have the impression that Lukashenko was in favor of this option, she says. But he is no longer strong enough to say no to Putin. »