Will Russia help resolve the crisis between Minsk and Brussels? Vladimir Poutine and Emmanuel Macron agreed on a “de-escalation” on the border between Poland and Belarus, the French presidency announced Monday, November 15, after a nearly two-hour call between the two heads of state. The Europeans accuse Minsk of organizing since the summer an influx of migrants at the gates of the EU, in retaliation for Western sanctions. “Our hope is that this long interview [entre Paris et Moscou] will be able in the coming days to bring results on the ground “, specified the Elysee Palace, adding that Vladimir Putin had committed to “talk about these issues” with his Belarusian counterpart.
Until now, Russia had remained on a ridge line, between supporting Minsk and distancing itself from the crisis. Thus, on Wednesday 10 November, the Kremlin was worried about the “humanitarian disaster that is brewing“at the border, while sending a patrol of bombers to roam Belarusian airspace, notes The cross. Two days later, Russian and Belarusian troops jointly conducted exercises near the border with Poland, as Moscow called on the EU to “re-establish contact” with Minsk.
“These two countries are allies from a geopolitical point of view. Russia wants Belarus to remain in its fold and therefore avoid any rapprochement with the European Union and NATO, as has been the case with neighboring countries like Ukraine “, recalls Alexandra Goujon, lecturer in political science at the University of Burgundy, interviewed by franceinfo.
“We note that Vladimir Putin did not condemn Belarusian actions.”
Alexandra Goujon, political scientistto franceinfo
Should we see the influence of Russia in this migratory crisis? The Polish Prime Minister made accusations to this effect on November 10, saying that “the brain was in Moscow”. “It’s possible, but we have no proof yet”, moderates the British historian Mark Galeotti in the columns of The cross. “Alexander Lukashenko has autonomy of action and it is conceivable that this migration crisis will be the example, abounds Alexandra Goujon. When the leader threatened to cut gas supplies to Europe, while the Russian giant Gazprom manages the pipeline through Belarus, Vladimir Putin intervened to reassure the EU. “
The Russian president once again distanced himself from the crisis, Saturday, November 13, during an interview with the Vesti channel: “I want everyone to know that, we have nothing to do with this.” He then sent the two sides back to back calling for talks between Brussels and Minsk “in the near future”. “From what I understand, Alexander Lukashenko and [la chancelière allemande Angela] Merkel are ready to talk to each other “, he insisted.
For Alexandra Goujon, this position serves a dual purpose. “It allows Moscow to relinquish responsibility in the face of tensions but it also gives legitimacy to the Belarusian head of state, by imposing him as an interlocutor”, she emphasizes. The EU is indeed contesting the results of the 2020 presidential election, which saw Alexander Lukashenko renewed with more than 80% of the vote. Since then, his regime has organized a violent crackdown on any challenge to power, going so far as to divert a plane to Minsk to arrest an opponent who was on board.
Beyond this migratory crisis, Vladimir Poutine seeks to strengthen his position vis-à-vis a European Union that he considers “expansionist”, analysis Alexandra Goujon. “Moscow wants to show Brussels that this area, which includes Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova, is its preserve, explains the political scientist to franceinfo. The objective is not so much to help Alexander Lukashenko to stay in power: Russia is engaged in a much longer-term balance of power. “
“Moscow does not want to take responsibility for this crisis, but it allows it to reassert its power in the region.”
Alexandra Goujon, political scientistto franceinfo
“There are two hypotheses: either Putin encourages, or he lets it happen, abounds a senior official of the European Council, quoted anonymously by The world. Either he is using Lukashenko in an attempt to destabilize the Union, or he has decided to let him act and use migration as a weapon, without using his considerable influence with him. “
The statements of the Elysee Palace on Monday suggest that Vladimir Putin heard calls from Europeans to intercede with Alexander Lukashenko. “It is obvious that if Russia is not part of the problem, it is at least part of the solution”, had guaranteed the Secretary of State for European Affairs, Clément Beaune, a few days earlier on BFM TV. Especially since this mediation could serve the interests of the Kremlin. “Russia’s goal is to show that it can influence Minsk, summarizes Alexandra Goujon. And therefore that it is an essential interlocutor in this region. “