Two famous marmots, one from Quebec and the other from the United States, agreed yesterday: spring will be early, a prediction which has however been cast into doubt by meteorologists.
According to this well-established folkloric tradition, if the little rodent does not see its shadow, spring will be early, as is the case this year for Fred, from Val-d’Espoir, in Gaspésie, and Phil, from Pennsylvania, in the USA.
Conversely, if he sees his shadow, winter will continue for six weeks.
Fred and Phil aren’t the only ones who made this announcement. Wiarton Willie, the albino groundhog from Ontario, Sam from Shubenacadie, the oracle from Nova Scotia, and American Woodstock Willie also predicted an early spring.
These predictions are, however, distorted by the mild weather in force for several days, according to weather experts.
“It’s more focused on the weather at the moment,” explains Jean-Philippe Bégin, meteorologist for Environment Canada. If the groundhog sees its shadow, that means it’s sunny and [en hiver] that often means colder weather. »
On the other hand, “if she can’t see her shadow, that means it’s cloudy, and there’s a good chance it’ll be mild.”
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Winter could “hang on”
Temperatures for the month of February will initially be close to seasonal norms, before being slightly above normal during the second week, maintains Mr. Bégin. Then, cold weather could persist until the end of the month.
This pushes Réjean Ouimet, meteorologist for Météo-Média, to believe that “winter could stick around” afterwards, contrary to what the marmots predicted.
“We risk experiencing somewhat disappointing temperatures,” he warns.
Beware of folklore
“After the third week in weather, it starts to become hazardous, because science doesn’t really allow us to go any further,” explains Mr. Bégin.
“As scientists, we don’t give any importance to the groundhog tradition,” he concludes, mockingly.
According to MétéoMédia, it is Fred who has had the best success rate in his predictions since 2010 (64%), while Willie has the least good sense (36%).
Woodstock Willie | CNN
– With the QM AgencyI