Nearly five billion passengers, a turnover approaching 1,000 billion dollars: air transport expects to break records in 2024, leaving the COVID-19 crisis a little more in the rearview mirror.
Erased the 4.54 billion travelers of 2019, before the pandemic. The International Air Transport Association (Iata) now plans to transport 4.96 billion people this year, it announced on Monday during its general assembly in Dubai (United Arab Emirates).
The organization, which so far envisaged 4.7 billion air travelers in 2024, also revised its economic projections upwards, expecting 30.5 billion dollars in cumulative profits for its carriers around the world compared to 25.7 billion up to mentioned here.
Iata also estimates that in 2023 airlines will have earned $27.4 billion, compared to $23.3 billion mentioned in its previous projections last December.
The health crisis, which caused the evaporation of two thirds of passenger volumes in 2020, had plunged the airline sector into abysmal losses. Iata valued them at $183 billion between 2020 and 2022.
The expected results for 2024 represent “a huge success given the recent serious losses due to the pandemic,” noted Iata Director General Willie Walsh to delegates from his organization bringing together 320 airlines representing 83% of traffic. global.
Air transport is also expected to break revenue records this year, at $996 billion, Iata estimated. She had so far mentioned 964 billion for 2024, already well above the 838 billion for 2019.
“The post-COVID recovery has been remarkable,” Vik Krishnan, airline sector specialist at McKinsey, describes to AFP, even if there are “contrasts depending on the region”: “domestic lines in the United States are doing very well , like in China,” but other markets remain behind, notably domestic networks in France and Germany, he notes.
Mr. Walsh, for his part, pointed out that profitability remains relatively low for his sector: 3% net margin in 2024.
Standardized freight
“At only $6.14 per passenger, our profits are very low, barely enough for a coffee shop in many parts of the world,” Mr Walsh argued.
Air freight turnover, which exploded to $210 billion in 2021, will drop to $120 billion this year, after $138 billion in 2023. But it will still be more than the $101 billion in 2019, before the crisis which has disrupted logistics chains, Iata predicted on Monday.
Airline costs are also expected to break records this year, at $936 billion, according to the organization. This will be fueled in particular by a fuel bill of 291 billion, or 31% of operational costs, based on a barrel of kerosene at $113.8.
“It is very important that we achieve sustainable profitability. This will allow companies to fully invest in the products our customers want, and the means to achieve net zero CO2 emissions in 2050,” a flagship commitment of the aviation sector, added the CEO.
Air transport currently emits less than 3% of global CO2, but is singled out because only a small minority of the world’s population uses it. And its warming effects are likely greater, because it also produces nitrogen oxides and condensation trails.
To achieve “net zero emissions” of CO2 by 2050, Iata is banking 65% on fuels of non-fossil origin (sustainable aviation fuelSAF in English), the balance of the reductions being obtained by new technologies, including hydrogen aircraft, optimization of operations on the ground and in the air, and carbon offsets.
But SAF, despite an expected tripling of production this year compared to 2023, will still represent only 0.53% of total global commercial air transport fuel consumption in 2024, according to Iata.
After Qatar in 2022, Turkey in 2023 and the Emirates in 2024, the organization will hold its next general assembly in another flagship country for the development of air transport, India, it revealed on Monday. The low-cost airline IndiGo will host it in New Delhi.