2050 is not tomorrow. For the aviation sector, it’s still soon. So much so that it is already almost too late to respect the ambition affirmed in Montreal last July by the 119 member countries of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to achieve carbon neutrality for their industry by then. Aerial. This is the observation made in any case by the CEO of Airbus, Guillaume Faury.
“The industry is not doing enough at the moment to reach its 2030 and 2050 targets.” Guillaume Faury opened on this discordant note on Wednesday morning in Toulouse the 2022 edition of the Airbus Summit, a two-day conference where the European manufacturer discussed climate issues with partners from all walks of life – the aerospace, energy and automotive sectors.
“The next few years will be years of rapid change. We are already seeing the dark effects of climate change. We must use the current energy and climate crises to drive and accelerate progress,” he told an audience of some 200 aerospace representatives via video.
Global aviation is responsible for approximately 2% of all greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activity. It accounts for 12% of emissions from all transport. It is relatively little. Its footprint could however triple by 2050 if nothing is done, due to the increasing number of passengers expected in the coming years.
Alternative fuels absent
Currently, there are few solutions to reduce pollution generated by aircraft. In short, manufacturers are working on more efficient aircraft. Airbus promises in particular by 2024 a new generation of its A350, a long-haul model which can accommodate up to 350 passengers, which would be 30% cleaner than the current generation.
But both Airbus and Boeing and other aircraft manufacturers want to adopt new fuel technologies that are currently lacking. In the short term, the solution takes the form of SAF fuel, qualified as sustainable, intended for aircraft and produced from renewable sources, such as agricultural and forestry waste.
SAF fuels do not make up quite 1% of the fuels currently used at the airport. For the industry to meet its first emissions reduction target set for 2030, 10% of kerosene would have to be replaced by SAF. However, in the best case, it seems more realistic to predict that it will only account for 6% of fuel at the end of the decade, says Guillaume Faury.
“The industry is not moving fast enough,” says the boss of Airbus. SAF fuel is not close to being produced in sufficient quantities. The infrastructure to get it to the airports is not there either. »
The American reference
Green hydrogen is the other avenue studied by aviation to completely decarbonise. But it will take even longer. Production of green hydrogen — a gas produced exclusively from renewable, carbon-free sources — is currently extremely low. And the viability of an aircraft powered by this gas is far from proven, whatever the management of Airbus may say.
This promises that it will market a first hydrogen plane by 2035 at the latest. At its summit in Toulouse, the aircraft manufacturer presented the two formulas currently under study: direct hydrogen combustion engines and fuel cell engines.
However, the development of the two technologies is currently at the very preliminary concept stage. Neither will be tested for a few more years. And both are developed by Airbus, which is not an engine manufacturer. In other words, the prognoses that Airbus will succeed in bringing a hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft to market in the middle of the next decade remain very uncertain.
This is undoubtedly one of the reasons why the senior management of the Franco-German giant is urging governments around the world to push the wheel in two ways, says Mr. Faury. “Governments can help in different ways. But in addition to passing more restrictive laws, they must help the transition fiscally, ”he summarizes.
The European CEO also praises the energy policy recently adopted by the United States. The famous Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) sets targets and offers incentives aimed at decarbonizing the American transport sector. But it also requires companies to invest in production on US soil.
Airbus makes no secret of it, this policy could lead it to increase its investments in the United States more significantly than elsewhere in the world, particularly in Europe. “The IRA is a game changer. This demonstrates the US government’s desire to act quickly in its energy transition. This will make our investment there more attractive,” concludes Guillaume Faury.
Our journalist is in Toulouse at the invitation of Airbus.