(Paris) Closed countries, movement restrictions and general uncertainty not very conducive to travel plans: the Omicron variant risks spoiling the start of 2022 for European air transport, which nevertheless hoped to have passed the worst of a historic crisis .
Observing a “sudden” slowdown in bookings, Ryanair, the largest European airline by number of passengers, warned Wednesday evening that its annual loss would probably be double what it expected, due to the impact of the new variant more contagious.
“The Omicron variant of COVID-19 and recent travel restrictions across Europe have significantly weakened our bookings for Christmas and New Years,” the company said.
In particular, it is subject to the ban on travelers who do not have an essential reason from the United Kingdom to France and Germany and the closure of Morocco’s borders.
Beyond reservations, Omicron’s effects on European air traffic are not yet clear.
According to the monitoring body Eurocontrol, which counts aircraft movements, these have experienced a continuous increase before the holiday season, and reached 76.3% of 2019 traffic on December 19, before the pandemic.
Eurocontrol, which bet on an average traffic of 80% during the second half of December, remained cautious for the continuation, judging that “the consequences (of Omicron) on January are not clear”.
Same circumspection within the International Air Transport Association (Iata), which federates nearly 300 companies, which believes that it is still too early to assess the effect of the variant on the sector.
Its general manager Willie Walsh had nevertheless warned in early December that the restrictions taken against Omicron “jeopardize the global connectivity that it has taken so long to rebuild”.
The association of European airports ACI Europe adopted a more alarmist tone on Thursday.
Operational puzzle
Citing preliminary data, she estimated that passenger traffic had collapsed by 20% in the equipment of its members from November 24, when the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that it had identified the new variant in South Africa.
At the same time, the filling rate of devices slipped from 66% to 54%, according to ACI Europe which nevertheless noticed, like Eurocontrol, an increase in attendance at the start of the Christmas season (+ 9% over a week ).
But, for the director general of the organization, Olivier Jankovec, only trips to “visit family and friends more or less hold up”.
In contrast, business and tourism travel is collapsing, given the extreme uncertainty and the prospect of further restrictions, between countries that have tightened entry conditions and those that have reinstated lockdowns.
Once the holidays are over, “there is no doubt that Omicron will have adverse consequences on passenger traffic in the first quarter of 2022”, worried Mr. Jankovec.
Both ACI Europe and IATA, as well as the organization of European airlines Airlines for Europe, have spoken out against the travel restrictions, arguing in unison with the WHO that they were ineffective once the variant became widespread. in the population.
But Omicron also results in operational headaches for companies: the Scandinavian SAS had to cancel dozens of flights on Tuesday and Wednesday, due to the absence of sick employees.
This new cold snap in the sector comes as it hoped in 2022 to continue to find its customers, two years after suffering the worst shock in its history, even if a return to the pre-COVID-19 situation was not envisaged before 2024, or even 2027 depending on the area.
Witness of this long-term confidence, investments in future aircraft have resumed, with in particular a giant order for 100 medium-haul Airbus last week by Air France-KLM.
Even before Omicron was identified, Iata warned that European airlines would close 2021 with a loss of $ 20.9 billion, and saw them stay in the red of $ 9.2 billion in 2022.