Will COP26 be as successful as COP21 in 2015, leading to the Paris Agreement? Nothing is less sure. Begun on November 1st in Glasgow, Scotland, the international climate summit has above all made it possible to show the differences between the countries of the North and those of the South, between the richest countries and the developing nations. While the conference must officially end on November 12, a first draft text has been validated, but still needs to be approved. We take stock of what to remember from this crucial summit in the fight against global warming.
Do more and faster
This first text encourages countries to revise upwards their national contributions (NDCs), which set their commitments, from 2022, i.e. three years before the date provided for by the Paris agreement of 2015 which fixed the revision of these NDCs for all. the five years. This text, published by the British presidency after 10 days of technical and high-level discussions at the Glasgow climate conference, calls on the signatories to “revise and strengthen their plans (for emission reductions) so as to make them compatible with the warming targets of the Paris Agreement“.
Which means a contained warming “clearly under“+ 2 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era, and if possible + 1.5 ° C. For Great Britain, which chairs COP26, the objective of”keep alive + 1.5 ° C“is one of the main markers of the success of the climate summit. The text insists in fact on a lesser impact of climate change with a warming of 1.5 ° C compared to 2 ° C.
This text still needs to be discussed and can be modified before its adoption before the end of COP26. He therefore calls for “rapid, strong and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, including 45% CO2 emissions reductions in 2030 from 2010 levels and carbon neutrality by mid-century“.
Signatory countries are encouraged to “accelerate the exit from coal and funding for fossil fuels“, responsible for most of the emissions. This is the first time that the term” fossil fuel “has been used at this level and it has been received rather favorably by observers.
“It was the mountain that gave birth to a mouse” for the UN
But the various climate commitments made by the States were not greeted with the same benevolence by the UN. According to the international organization, the new promises of nations have only marginally improved humanity’s chances of curbing global warming. “When we look at these new commitments, frankly, it’s the editing that gave birth to a mouse“said Inger Andersen, patron of the United Nations Environment Program, on Tuesday.
Aid to poor countries
On the very controversial issues of financial aid to poor countries, the new version of the text still calls on rich countries to fulfill, and even go beyond, their broken pledge to provide $ 100 billion per year. And to double the aid specifically devoted to adaptation to the effects of climate change, while aid for emission reductions currently captures 75% of the total.
Poor countries consider this distribution particularly “unfair”, since they represent an insignificant share of global emissions, but are already suffering the most severe consequences of global warming. They therefore also insist that funding now take into account the “loss and damage” they are already suffering. On this dispute, the text proposes to speed up the implementation of measures already planned, as well as the creation of a “technical assistance facility”.
But without giving any figures, whereas the estimates of needs for all envelopes of the groups of less developed countries now range from 750 billion to 1.300 billion dollars per year.
Surprise deal between the United States and China
The first two countries emitting greenhouse gases created a surprise by announcing an agreement in Glasgow. China and the United States have jointly declared that they want to commit to doing more to combat global warming. The two powers promise, without very precise details, to “take reinforced measures to raise ambitions during the 2020s”, reaffirming their attachment to the objectives of the Paris Agreement, a limited warming “well below” of 2 ° C by compared to the pre-industrial era, and if possible at 1.5 ° C.
In Glasgow, Beijing and Washington pledged to work for “an ambitious, balanced and inclusive outcome on mitigation (lower emissions), adaptation and support“financial to poor countries. An agreement hailed as”an important step in the right direction“by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres.
Two other countries, among the biggest polluters on the planet, have also made promises. India and Brazil are committed to achieving carbon neutrality in 2050 and 2070.
“A failure” for Greta Thunberg
The first week of COP26 was marked by a massive demonstration of thousands of young people who came to Glasgow to call for action against climate change. On November 5, Swedish activist Greta Thunberg called the climate conference “failure” and of “celebration of ‘business as usual’ and blahThe face of the youth climate movement said: “Our leaders don’t show the way, this is what leadership looks like“, pointing to the crowd.
Greta Thunberg mentioned a “greenwashing festival “ and called for a new demonstration on Saturday, at the end of the two weeks of COP26.