The “blitzkrieg” offensive promised by Vladimir Putin in February 2022 has become a war of attrition and no peace agreement is on the agenda. Looking at history, several experts explain why this conflict lasts.
Two years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, fighting continues and peace still seems far away. However, when Vladimir Putin launched his “special military operation” in his neighbor on February 24, 2022, he promised a blitzkrieg and the capture of kyiv in a few days. But the Russian army came up against the Ukrainian defense and the solidarity of its Western allies.
If kyiv’s supporters have provided tens of billions of euros in aid, they are now divided on the continuation of the assistance to be sent. Russia, on the contrary, claims to have absorbed the shock of economic sanctions and intends to strengthen its army. The Ukrainian counter-offensive launched in the summer of 2023 did not have the expected effects and the front line is almost frozen.
“If this continues, Ukraine’s statehood could suffer an irreparable blow”rejoiced Vladimir Putin at the end of January. Is this ongoing war exceptional? Why does peace seem impossible? Franceinfo interviewed several specialists.
The banality of wars that last
On February 24, 2022 at dawn, when Vladimir Putin launched his offensive in Ukraine, he was convinced that he could take kyiv in a few days. The Russian army bombs the suburbs of the capital. Frightened, civilians rush to the stations to reach the West and cross the border. In the West, most observers thought these images belonged to the 20th century. “We thought that wars [du XXIe siècle] would be carried out with new advanced technologies, autonomous weapon systems. That they would take place in space and cyberspace”notes war historian Margaret MacMillan in the American magazine Foreign Affairs.
“Westerners realized that conventional war between states could return to the European continent”, explains Tim Sweijs, research director at the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague (Netherlands). Even though Europe experienced the Yugoslav War in the 1990s, this is the first time that the territorial integrity of a state has been violated on the continent since the end of the Second World War.
On the front, the Ukrainian army is increasing its ambushes to slow down the Russian advance. Thanks to the military aid provided by its allies, it managed to force the Russian army to retreat to the East.
“The success of a blitzkrieg depends on various factors such as the resistance of the adversary, international support and the ability to consolidate territorial gains.”
Tim Sweijs, research director at the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hagueat franceinfo
The conflict evolves into a war of positions. The fighting is concentrated in the towns of Boutcha, Zaporizhia and Mariupol. “The situation got bogged down and the war turned into a war of attrition,” continues Tim Sweijs, who specifies that it is a state “far from exceptional” in contemporary history. In the 20th century, many wars promised to be short ended up dragging on, in Europe as elsewhere. In the summer of 1914, European countries went to war promising soldiers home for Christmas, but the war lasted four years. In 1980, Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein invaded Iran, believing that the 1979 Islamic Revolution had weakened it and that confrontation would come quickly. The war dragged on for more than seven years, claiming more than a million lives.
Total victories difficult to obtain
For researchers interviewed by franceinfo, wars tend to last because total victories are almost impossible. “During the world wars of the 20th century, states followed a doctrine according to which the outcome could only be a complete surrender of their opponents”recalls Caroline Kennedy-Pipe, professor of war studies at Loughborough University (United Kingdom). “In World War II, the Allies wanted to destroy Nazi Germany and Fascist Japan.”
But the atomic bombings in 1945 on Hiroshima and Nagasaki shifted the conflicts “in an era where total victories were unthinkable, because they were far too risky.” Afterwards, “wars between states have been less frequent” and conflicts took other forms, such as wars of independence between states and their colonial power. After September 11, “Western states have embarked on wars against terrorism with asymmetrical adversaries and even fewer possibilities of victory”, believes Caroline Kennedy-Pipe. The war led by the United States against terrorism in Afghanistan (2001-2021) lasted twenty years and ended with the return to power of the Taliban.
“Western countries waging wars in the 21st century tend to limit human and material costs. This is why the war of attrition taking place in Ukraine seems terrifying to us.”
Caroline Kennedy-Pipe, war studies researcherat franceinfo
In his study (in PDF) How wars end: prospects for the Russia-Ukraine war, Tim Sweijs assessed 63 interstate wars between 1946 and 2005. Only 21% of these conflicts ended with a net result. “Wars that end in a stalemate, without victory, but with two sides continuing to threaten each other, are much more likely to be repeated.”he explains. In 2008, the war between Georgia and Russia for South Ossetia and Abkhazia, pro-Russian separatist territories, ended in five days with a ceasefire. But the Russian army still occupies 20% of Georgia.
No decisive battle
On the battlefield in Ukraine, the two armies still managed to face each other. “There were failures and successes on both sides. But there was no decisive battle that would have overthrown the adversary”, continues Caroline Kennedy-Pipe. There was no equivalent “from a battle of Waterloo”, adds Tim Sweijs. In 1815, this brutal defeat of Napoleon against an Anglo-Prussian coalition led to the abdication of the French emperor and ended the Napoleonic era.
“The war in Ukraine is an ‘old-fashioned’ war, characterized by strategies of fortifications, sieges, where the artillery on both sides sought to overwhelm their opponents by sending them rockets, missiles…”, observes David Betz, professor of war studies at King’s College, London. Initially, Russia had a military budget ten times that of Ukraine, almost a million active troops and two million reservists. “But the Ukrainians knew how to defend themselves well, despite Western weapons that were rather difficult to use and poorly adapted to the terrain,” Judge David Betz.
kyiv is now waiting to receive F-16 planes and long-range missiles promised by its allies. Because “Air superiority has always been essential in wars over the past fifty years”, continues Tim Sweijs. In 1967, Israel won the Six-Day War thanks to its air force. “Whoever controls the sky will determine when and how the war ends.”warned Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kouleba in January.
“Without Western support, it’s over for Ukraine.”
David Betz, professor of war studies at King’s College Londonat franceinfo
Each side also believes it can still win. Vladimir Poutine “sees that the Ukrainian forces are exhausted, that Western aid is uncertain. He knows that a return of Donald Trump to power in November will be favorable to him”, continues Tim Sweijs. During his mandate, the former American president had repeatedly threatened to leave NATO and repeated his admiration for Vladimir Putin.
The Ukrainian president does not see no interest in stopping the fighting. “He believes that a cease-fire fire would allow Vladimir Putin to rearm and that this would only lengthen the duration of the fighting”, observes Tim Sweijs. Furthermore, “kyiv harbors deep distrust towards Russia,” recalls Dan Reiter, professor of political science at Emory University, in the United States, and author of How Wars End (2009). “The Budapest memorandum signed in 1994 between the two countries, in which Moscow undertook to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine, has never been respected,” he recalls. It did not prevent Russia from annexing Crimea in 2014.
A peace to be maintained over time
What remains is public opinion to change the course of history. “Its role is central, because war is a struggle of wills and public opinion determines or influences political will”, explains David Betz. In the 1960s, the Vietnam War provoked numerous peace protests in the United States and contributed to the withdrawal of American troops from the country. After two years of war, Ukraine is struggling to recruit new volunteers and mobilization is the subject of debate. Support for the war is still high (60%), but down compared to 2022 (70%), according to a poll by the American Gallup institute published in October 2023.
But “in autocracies like Russia, opinion matters little since all information about the war is controlled”, recalls Tim Sweijs. Internationally, Russia also remains unconstrained. The Kremlin assures that it was able to absorb Western sanctions and “neither India nor China puts pressure on Moscow, because Russia is an important trading partner”recalls the researcher.
“The longer the war lasts, the more likely Russia is to win.”
Dan Reiter, professor of political scienceat franceinfo
Especially since, even if one of the two camps managed to win the war, it would not necessarily lead to peace. “Lis itpeacekeeping costs can be very high”, warns David Betz. LThe West would then need to provide very significant amounts of military aid to Ukraine to help deter any future attacks from Russia. In 2003, when the United States invaded Iraq and overthrew Saddam Hussein, “they had no reconstruction plan for the future” and the war lasted almost ten years, illustrates Caroline Kennedy-Pipe.
Worse: peace treaties are sometimes sources of new wars. “The humiliation suffered by the Germans with the Treaty of Versailles in 1919 created a feeling of revenge, which contributed to the emergence of the Second World War,” recalls Tim Sweijs. In 1945, the UN was created for this purpose: to prevent the return of conflicts and to maintain peace. But it is struggling to make its voice heard in the war in Ukraine, blocked by the Russian veto in the Security Council. In early January, the organization declared that the toll of the war was “catastrophic” And that there was “no end in sight.”