A jury of twelve New York residents found Donald Trump guilty on all counts against him on Thursday. But the impact on the November 5 presidential election remains to be determined.
The verdict against the former Republican president obscures his medium-term future, with his year 2025 which could begin in the Oval Office of the White House, or in a prison cell.
The trial was widely covered by the American media, sparking a lot of comments from both Republican and Democratic sides. But according to analysts and polling institutes, the impact on a large majority of voters could be much more moderate.
“We are in a hyperpolarized political system, in which voters focus on what they reject, they vote against the candidate they like the least, not for the one they support,” explains political science researcher Nicholas Higgins, of North Greenville University.
“To the extent that the accusations were already widely known and presented by the former president’s camp as a political trial, few voters will therefore believe they were wrong” after this verdict, he added.
No tilt
Donald Trump, 78 years old in June, is the first former American president convicted criminally. But he is also the first to be a presidential candidate for one of the two major parties, providing additional angles of attack for the Democratic campaign.
Despite the revelations – involving sex, money and scandals – the trial has so far had no impact on the polls, leaving Donald Trump and Joe Biden neck and neck, but with a slight lead for the Republican candidate in key states.
A survey by the Marist Institute highlighted that a conviction would have little effect for two thirds of those questioned.
Nicholas Higgins puts the proportion of voters who could now vote for a third candidate, or not go to the polls, at around 1%, “but we should not expect a shift towards Joe Biden” because of the verdict.
Another poll, from YouGov for Yahoo! News also highlighted the very relative interest of Americans in this trial: 31% of those questioned said they were bored while following it while only 26% found it interesting.
Even more, only half considered falsifying accounts to hide payments to be a major crime.
“A big difference”
Other specialists, however, believe that even a marginal drop in votes for Donald Trump could have a major impact in the six or seven states where the election will truly be decided.
“It will be decided by a few thousand votes in these states, a conviction will certainly hurt him,” anticipates Donald Nieman, professor of history at Binghamton University.
Furthermore, this verdict could strengthen the core of support for Donald Trump but alienate independent voters, thinks Jared Carter, professor at the Vermont law school. “And in a close election in a few states, these independent voters, probably moderate Republicans, will make a big difference. »
“If we take stock, beyond the agitation, the headlines and the support of his electoral base, I think the impact will be negative and could cost him the election,” he added.
Professor at the Albany Law School, Ray Brescia also emphasizes that the impact of this trial could be reinforced by the fact that it could be the only one, among the various lawsuits targeting the Republican candidate, to achieve a conclusion before the elections.
“Determining how many voters will turn away from Mr. Trump is difficult to say, but even a small change could have enormous consequences,” he explains to AFP.