“A change of times.” A week after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron warned: “Democracy is no longer considered an uncontested regime. (…) It is more than ever a system of courage, a constant fight”. Visiting Poland a fortnight later, Joe Biden shared the same vision in the face of American soldiers.“We are the only country in the world that represents an ideal (…): you are there to defend democracy against autocracy”said the President of the United States.
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Three months after the start of the war, this reading of the world is not necessarily shared in the countries of the South. At the UN, several emerging states, including China, India and Brazil, opposed or abstained during the vote on resolutions condemning the Russian offensive. How to understand these positions? What alliances and geopolitical fractures has the war brought to light? Franceinfo has looked into these questions.
The European Union has strengthened its defense policy
The war in Ukraine is a historic turning point for the sea serpent of European construction: defence. “There was a violent realization, on the part of Europeans, that war was back on the continent”, explains to franceinfo Federico Santopinto, specialist in European integration. From the end of February, the EU unblocks 450 million euros of military equipment and delivers, for the first time in its history, weapons to a third country. During a summit in Versailles in March, the 27 also agreed to “substantially increase their defense spending”.
During the adoption of the “Strategic Compass” (a plan intended to strengthen the policy of security and defense by 2030, as explained by All Europe), Russia is singled out as a threat for the first time. An unprecedented position since several Member States had a lenient position vis-à-vis Moscow until then, notes a note from the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).
“This shock of Russian aggression is mobilizing efforts that have never been seen before.”
Ronja Kempin, researcher at Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politikat franceinfo
For the first time since the end of the Second World War, Germany, Belgium and Denmark decide to increase their defense spending. Berlin announces an increase in this budget to more than 2% of GDP, thus breaking with its post-war pacifist tradition. For its part, Sweden put an end to its neutrality by agreeing to deliver arms to Ukraine. A first since 1939.
The United States has reinvested Europe with NATO
Two years after Emmanuel Macron judged that NATO was in a state of “brain death”, the war in Ukraine has led to an unexpected leap forward for the Atlantic Alliance. Joe Biden rules out any sending of troops to the front, but deploys 100,000 American soldiers in the Baltic countries, in Poland and in Romania, to reinforce the eastern flank of the organization. Washington is also taking unprecedented economic sanctions against Moscow and voting aid of nearly 15 billion dollars for Ukraine. At the end of April, faced with the intensification of the fighting, the country announced the dispatch of heavy and offensive weapons to kyiv.
This return to Europe contrasts with Joe Biden’s priorities at the start of his mandate: the Indo-Pacific zone and China. In September 2021, the breach of a contract for the purchase of French submarines by Australia, in favor of American devices, had also caused a sharp crisis between Washington and Paris. But the invasion of Ukraine strengthened their relationship. “The war makes Europeans more dependent on the United States”, analyzes Sylvie Matelly, Deputy Director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS).
“In the years to come, Europeans will increase their military and energy expenditure with the United States, to protect themselves from Russia.”
Sylvie Matelly, deputy director of Irisat franceinfo
However, for the researcher, “The day Vladimir Putin is no longer in power, Americans will once again focus on China and not on Europe”.
China and India do not condemn Russia but spare the West
To date, China has never condemned the Russian offensive, even refusing to speak of intervention. The official media pick up on the Kremlin’s propaganda, according to which the war in Ukraine is a response to an expansion of NATO in the East, and Beijing opposes economic sanctions against Russia. “Both countries share the ideology of a new world order against liberal democracies”, emphasizes Valérie Niquet, China specialist.
Beijing boasts of its friendship with Russia, “solid as a rock”, and their “cooperation without prohibition”. Behind this speech, however, China maintains a cautious position vis-à-vis the West. “At the UN, she recalled that national sovereignty and borders must be respected. She does not openly support the invasion of Ukraine,” continues Valérie Niquet.
“China has an in-between position. It supports Moscow without helping it massively.”
Valérie Niquet, China specialistat franceinfo
Because Beijing does not want to tarnish its relations with the Americans and the Europeans, its main economic partners. China also does not want “to be subject to sanctions” like Moscow, notes Valérie Niquet.
New Delhi, which has refrained from condemning Russia at the UN, adopts the same balancing act. According to France 24, about 85% of India’s current arsenal comes from Russia, its main arms supplier as well as its historical and commercial ally since the end of the Cold War. Faced with Western pressure, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi however called on May 5 to one “immediate cessation of hostilities” in Ukraine.
In Africa, priority is given to national interests
On March 2, twenty African countries abstained at the UN from voting on a resolution calling for an end to the Russian invasion. Among them: Algeria, Madagascar, Mali, Sudan, the Central African Republic, South Africa and Senegal.. “There are those who consider that these conflicts are far from them and that it is necessary (…) to spare the goat and the cabbage in their various cooperations”Michel Galy explains to TV5 Monde, West Africa specialist. This is for example the case of Madagascar, which signed a military cooperation agreement with Russia in January.
others, such as Mali and the Central African Republic, are “under new Russian influence haswith the call for mercenaries of Wagner”. “The importance that Wagner takes (…) approaches a reversal of alliance”valued Michael Galy. These Russian mercenaries spread the narrative that Russia is an anti-imperialist state, opposed to the former European colonial powers in Africa.
“These countries refuse to align themselves with the order imposed by the West and show Westerners that they are no longer the masters of the world.”
Sylvie Matelly, deputy director of Irisat franceinfo
Moreover, Africa is largely dependent on Russian and Ukrainian fertilizers, as well as their wheat. The two countries alone cover a third of the consumption of this cereal in a quarter of African countries, recalls The Conversation (link in English).
In the Middle East, a cautious rapprochement with Russia
Traditional allies of the United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have come out to the UN for an end to the war in Ukraine. But they took no action against Russia. The two Gulf monarchies have refused to increase their oil production, despite Washington’s demands to contain the rise in the price of hydrocarbons. And Dubai welcomed the Russian oligarchs despite the desire of Westerners to confiscate their assets, notes The world.
Faced with the withdrawal of Americans from the Middle East in recent years, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have found new support in Moscow. The two Arab countries criticize the United States for not having been more firm in the face of attacks by the Houthi rebels against their territories, in the war in Yemen, and for not engaging with them against Iran, underlines a note of the FRS. Riyadh also did not like the CIA accusing him of being responsible for the death of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
For its part, Israel is keeping a low profile. An unwavering ally of Washington, the Jewish state has condemned the Russian offensive. But, as early as March 5, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett went to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin there and pose as a mediator in the conflict. Tel Aviv has also maintained military cooperation with Russia, which controls Syrian airspace, in order to continue hitting Iranian forces in Syria.
In Latin America, the refusal to choose a side
Apart from Bolivia, Nicaragua, Cuba and El Salvador, which abstained, all Latin American countries voted for the UN resolution demanding an end to the war in Ukraine. The abstainers “condemn the war but consider that a large part of the situation is the responsibility of the West”, explains to franceinfo Christophe Ventura, specialist in Latin America. They believe, like the Kremlin, that NATO should not extend to the borders of Russia and that the latter is only defending itself.
For twenty years, thanks to the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), Latin America has come closer to Moscow in terms of military and technological cooperation and agricultural exchanges. During the pandemic, Russia delivered many Sputnik V vaccines to this continent. These countries also denounce the double discourse of Westerners regarding the defense of human rights. “They have in mind the American intervention in Iraq, decided without the agreement of the UN, the war in Afghanistan or the torture in Guantanamo”, supports Christophe Ventura.
“These countries have tasted enough American interventionism since the end of the 19th century. For them, the United States takes a stand based on its interests and not on moral principles.”
Christophe Ventura, Latin America specialistat franceinfo
For Christophe Ventura, this “non-alignment” does not, however, respond to an ideological project, as was the case during the Cold War. “It shows that each State is now positioning itself according to its economic or immediate interests, explains the researcher. There is no unified Latin American voice.”