In theory, the Conservative Party, which has a comfortable majority in the Chamber, is under no obligation to call new elections. He can wait until the end of 2024. All he has to do is appoint a new leader, who will automatically become prime minister. This is the principle of the British parliamentary system. And this is exactly what the 1922 committee, which directs the organization of this designation within the party, announces.
The committee promises that a new party leader will be appointed by Friday, October 28, including through consultation with activists. The candidates to succeed Liz Truss are first of all her former rivals from last summer when she herself won the leadership: the former finance minister Rishi Sunak, the now House Majority Leader Penny Mordaunt, even the brief Interior Minister Suella Braverman who resigned even before Liz Truss. But the British press is also buzzing with the rumor of a return of Boris Johnson, with the support of several deputies. The former Prime Minister, despite all his escapades, remains the most popular leader in the ranks of the Conservative Party. In any case, if the Tories manage to agree, there is no reason to see new elections triggered.
But this is not the only hypothesis. Several senior Tory elders believe divisions within the movement make a consensus candidacy impossible. They add that an opposition cure would do the party great good after 12 years in power. And then the disavowal that strikes the party is such (with three prime ministers in one year, and four finance ministers), the lack of coherence on economic policy is so flagrant, that the conservatives would be honored to immediately call a general election , two years before the theoretical term. Elections are what all the opposition parties are calling for, Labor, Liberal Democrats, Scottish Nationalists. In this hypothesis, Labor would leave ultra-favourites. Opinion polls now give them a 30-point lead!
The final element of uncertainty relates to the reaction of British society to the chaos. New social movements, with new transport strikes, are plausible. Tony Blair’s former adviser, Alastair Campbell, calls to take to the streets if there is no general election. The economic situation is very worrying: inflation exceeds 10%, the pound is heckled, energy bills are soaring. The country, 6 years after Brexit, is in turmoil and more disunited than ever.