After the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Jordan and Iraq await strong responses from the Islamic regime

Israeli strikes on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, risk further inflaming the Middle East. After the death of a general of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in the attack, reactions are increasing in the region, particularly in Jordan and Iraq.

Monday 1^er April, an Israeli strike targeting the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, left 13 dead. Two generals from the Quds Force, the elite unit of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, were among the victims. Iranian President Ebrahim Raïssi warned that “this cowardly crime will not go unanswered.” Iraq has also threatened to resume attacks against American bases in Iraq, while Jordan hopes that the Iranian response to Israel will be strong.

Israeli air attacks against Syria are not new. Since October 7, Israeli planes have carried out more than 10 attacks in Syria, targeting either leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards or Iranian interests. In total, 40 airstrikes on Syria were carried out by Israel during this period. But what is striking about the recent Israeli attack is that it targeted the Iranian consulate building in Damascus, a place which therefore benefits from diplomatic immunity, but above all, it cost the lives of seven personalities of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

Jordan plans strong Iranian response

The attack inflamed already existing tensions between Israel and Iran, especially after the latter pledged to respond. For his part, in Jordan, the former general of the Jordanian intelligence services, Omar al-Raddad, hopes that the Iranian response to Israel will be strong and on several fronts. “We will see an escalation beyond the limits of the rules of engagement in the region from militias in Syria and certainly Hezbollah, in addition to action by the Houthi group under the leadership of Iranian leaders”he explains.

On the other hand, Arab and Islamic countries, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, the Sultanate of Oman, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and Pakistan, condemned the attack on the Iranian consulate, considering it a violation of the United Nations Charter and international law.

Israel has been targeting Syria a lot lately because it is one of the poles of the so-called Axis of Resistance. Indeed, Israel and its interests have been targeted by Hezbollah in Lebanon and by armed militias affiliated with the Axis of Resistance in Syria, Iraq and Yemen as well.

Iraq threatens American bases

Iraq is under total influence of Iran since Tehran’s militias control Iraqi territory. These armed groups also quickly reacted to the Israeli strike. They threaten to resume attacks on American bases present in Iraq to fight against the Islamic State. At the start of the Gaza War, a militia group called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq attacked these American bases almost daily. These strikes were stopped abruptly in early February, after a major American response against these groups.

The Israeli strike on Damascus risks being a pretext for these attacks to resume. However, beyond these militias, it is Iran that could strike directly. The terrain is also perfectly chosen, the north of Iraqi Kurdistan, an ally of the Americans. According to the director of the French research center on Iraq, Adel Bakawan, an attack in the coming days is expected. “The use of intelligent ballistic missiles on Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, is the most feasible scenario by the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran”he indicates.

Such strikes would not be a first, since in early January 2024, 11 Iranian ballistic missiles targeted Erbil, causing four civilian casualties and 17 injured.