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NOWU Chronicle 15/12
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COP28 ended on December 13 with a declaration that was not unanimous. After this decisive annual step, States will still have to refine their strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
After two weeks of intense negotiations, the parties reached a declaration that was “historic” according to some and “insufficient” for others.
As is generally the case with such diplomatic negotiations, it does not contain obligations strictly speaking: the text simply “notes”, “recognizes”, “expresses concern”, or even “reaffirms” objectives .
What obligations for States?
However, there are many obligations contained in the Paris Agreement adopted in 2015 and which sets the famous objective of limiting the warming of global temperatures to +1.5°C to 2°C.
Indeed, the States which have ratified it must provide Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC): strategies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions which must be updated every 5 years.
For now, the strategies announced should reduce emissions by 2% to 9% in 2030, when they would need to fall by 28% to 42% to limit the rise in temperatures to +1.5°C or 2°C. States will therefore have to work on new emissions reduction strategies and present them between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025.
So that these new strategies are as ambitious as possible, the declaration marks the launch of a “Road map to mission 1.5°C”: a roadmap to keep the 1.5°C objective in sight at all costs.
Are climate negotiations really useful?
For Guillaume Compain, Climate Advocacy Officer at Oxfam France, the negotiations are having a real impact, even if it is difficult to perceive.
“The decision of this COP28 sends a clear signal to governments but also to investors that we are entering the era of the end of fossil fuels. […] We will have concrete translations and in particular a battle over financing from next year which will be difficult. »
Guillaume Compain, climate advocacy officer at Oxfam France
Whatever happens, between now and COP29 which will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, other negotiation sessions will take place like every year: the Bonn intersessions, which allow preparation for the COP. Diplomatic work will therefore continue behind the scenes, in particular to obtain quantified commitments, which were lacking in Dubai.