Emmanuel Macron is therefore a candidate for a second term. What is the political meaning of this candidacy? To continue. To continue what he has been prevented from doing by a succession of crises. And continue to protect the French from these perils that threaten them. He quotes them from the beginning of the Letter to the French in which he makes his declaration of candidacy: war in Europe of course, but also pandemic, terrorism or even “return of violence”. Gone is the disruptor candidate of 2017, the one who claimed to bury “the old world”. Emmanuel Macron puts on the traditional costume of Father of the Nation, often dear to outgoing people, especially in times of trouble.
A posture that strongly recalls that of François Mitterrand in 1988. With him too, a letter to the French without asperities, a late candidacy – barely more than a month before the first round – and a slogan “United France” which seems to inspire Macronist prose. Without forgetting, for Mitterrand at the time as for Macron today, a status of grandissime favorite of the ballot.
Does this mean that candidate Macron is not going to campaign? He won’t lead her much. The justification is all found: war. The Head of State alludes to this at the end of his letter. “Of course, I will not be able to campaign as I would have liked because of the context”, he said. When you spend an hour and a half on the phone with Poutine every three days, like Thursday again, that leaves little time to go and debate with Valérie Pécresse… It’s also a way to take full advantage of the status of President outgoing.
In his entourage, there was a long debate between those who advocated a bold campaign, with real risk-taking, and the side of caution. The gravity of the moment decided. This is not the time for huge festive meetings. And in an increasingly uncertain world, the French in lack of bearings need to be reassured rather than jostled…
The risk for candidate Macron is immobility. Of course, for the outcome of the ballot first. Nothing is played in advance. And above all, beyond. If the campaign is sidestepped, if the election boils down to a sort of validation of achievements, the inevitable renewal of the incumbent, a second term for the Head of State could immediately suffer from a lack of legitimacy. The right is not yet beaten that the President of the Senate, Gérard Larcher, already blames Emmanuel Macron for it. And it is the specter of a new civic crisis, of the type of that of the yellow vests, which would resurface. When the public debate is not completely resolved at the ballot box, it often tends to move to the streets.