Calls to leave Lebanon, strengthening of the American military presence in the region, diplomatic efforts to ease tensions… Concerns about a military escalation in the Middle East are growing on Monday, August 5, following the increase in threats from Iran and its allies against Israel.
At the origin of this new rise in tensions, Iran, the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas and the Lebanese Hezbollah have accused Israel of the death of the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, on July 31 in Tehran. His assassination came a few hours after a strike claimed by the Hebrew state which killed the military leader of the Lebanese movement Hezbollah, Fouad Chokr, on Tuesday evening near Beirut (Lebanon).
Iran and its allies – Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the Palestinian Hamas and Yemen’s Houthi rebels – have vowed to retaliate for the killings. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said his country is ready to confront “to Iran and its henchmen on all fronts”. While the hypothesis of the regionalization of the conflict between Israel and Hamas is more relevant than ever, franceinfo takes stock of the reasons for the concern of the international community.
Because Iran was hit on its soil
“For Iran, the issue is not so much the death of Ismail Haniyeh as the place where [la frappe] took place. An attack in the heart of Tehran is a humiliation for the country, because it violates its sovereignty.”deciphered David Rigoulet-Roze, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris) on franceinfo at the beginning of August. For the latter, there will be “necessarily an answer” Iran’s involvement in the assassination of the Hamas leader, although the form taken is still unknown.
“In terms of image, the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran is worse for the Islamic Republic than the strike against its embassy in Damascus on April 1. Because it took place in Iran, moreover a few hours after the inauguration of the new president, and that he touched a senior Hamas dignitaryabounds in The world Arman Mahmoudian, a researcher at the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida. If Iran does not respond, especially if a missile or drone attack is confirmed, this will be interpreted as a sign of great weakness.”
Because Iran and its allies have promised to respond severely
The assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders prompted Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to say on Sunday that Israel had crossed “red lines”. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Sunday threatened a “severe punishment”. “Iran has the legal right to punish” Israel, Foreign Affairs spokesman Nasser Kanani insisted in Tehran on Monday.
“The Zionist regime will certainly receive the answer to this crime at the appropriate time and place”also warned the Revolutionary Guards, the ideological army of the Iranian regime. The Israeli cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa “are among the targets”claimed the ultra-conservative Iranian daily KayhanIran’s representation to the UN, for its part, said it expected Hezbollah to strike in “depth” from Israeli territory, and “is not limited to military targets.”
However, it is likely that Iran understands the importance of its response more than its words suggest. “Tehran does not want to create major tensions with the United States, which could “facilitate the election of Donald Trump”who does not hide his desire for severity towards the Iranian regime, reminds the World Arman Mahmoudian.
Because tensions with Israel were already high
The deaths of Ismail Haniyeh and Fouad Chokr come at a time when tensions in the region had already been high for several months. In April, after Deadly raid on Iranian diplomatic building in Syriaalso blamed on Israel, Tehran had notably carried out an unprecedented attack on Israeli soil. “More than 300 drones and missiles” had been launched, and almost all intercepted, according to the Israeli army.
The war in Gaza has also led to the opening of fronts against Israel by the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis. On Saturday, Hezbollah claimed to have targeted the town of Beit Hillel in northern Israel for the first time with dozens of rockets, while the Israeli army responded with strikes in southern Lebanon. Near Tel Aviv, in the suburb of Holon, a A stabbing attack by a resident of the occupied West Bank on Sunday killed a 66-year-old woman and an 80-year-old man, police said.
Israel has said in recent months that it is prepared for a wider war, particularly with Lebanon. As early as April, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said his country was approaching “of an open war”. Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said on the sidelines of Fouad Chokr’s funeral on August 1 that “the war [était] entering a new stage”reports the online media Orient XXI.
Because Benjamin Netanyahu is playing for his political survival
“We are determined to oppose” to Iran and its allies “on all fronts, in all arenas, near and far”Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hammered home Sunday, facing a drop in popularity since the start of the war against Hamas. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant also said Sunday that the army was “ready to react quickly or attack.” But “for the moment”internal defense policy “did not change”Army spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari told reporters in response to the “rumors” on putting the country on alert.
However, if a response from Iran and its allies “were to cause casualties in Israel, there is a real risk that Israel will rush headlong and seize the opportunity to settle its score or attempt to settle its score with the pro-Iranian militias in the region”estimates on franceinfo Karim Emile Bitar, professor at the Saint-Joseph University of Beirut and associate researcher at Iris.
“There is a fear that Benjamin Netanyahu will take advantage of this window of opportunity (…) to ensure his own political survival and change the balance of geopolitical forces before Joe Biden’s successor is known.”
Karim Emile Bitar, associate researcher at Irison franceinfo
Indeed, “The United States is the only country capable of encouraging Israel to exercise restraint by imposing conditionality on American aid.” Gold, “Two months before the elections, it is hard to see the United States changing its policy” vis-à-vis their Israeli ally, believes Karim Emile Bitar. The Pentagon also announced on Friday that the United States would deploy more warships and combat aircraft to protect their ally from a possible attack.
The researcher also recalls that “The Trauma in Israel” after the attacks of October 7 “remains extremely strong”, and does not allow the “advice from Israeli allies like America and Europe” to make themselves heard enough “to the extremism of a large part of the war cabinet.”
Because a new escalation could bury the hope of a truce in Gaza
The assassination of the Hamas leader and fears of a regional conflagration have jeopardized talks on a truce in the war that has been raging in Gaza for nearly ten months. Since the unprecedented attack by the Palestinian Islamist movement on Israel on October 7, Qatar has played a key mediating role with Hamas. But a few hours after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Doha questioned whether to continue its efforts. “How can mediation succeed when one side murders the other side’s negotiator?”said Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani.
Moreover, Ismail Haniyeh played a crucial role in discussions with mediators in Qatar, where Hamas’ political office has been based since 2012. The former Hamas leader was “able to unlock some of the difficulties during the mediation process and that could certainly be a lost asset with his assassination”says Andreas Krieg, a military analyst and lecturer at King’s College London. In the very short term, “mediation and negotiation are probably dead”the researcher believes. But although he has “played an important role, his assassination does not necessarily compromise any form of medium-term mediation term”he qualifies.